Preoperative Clinical Characteristics Predict Recurrent Laryngeal Nerve Lymph Node Metastasis and Overall Survival in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Retrospective Study With External Validation

BACKGROUND: Recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) lymph node metastasis (LNM) is not rare in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We aimed to develop and externally validate a preoperative nomogram using clinical characteristics to predict RLN LNM in patients with ESCC and evaluate its prognostic value. METHODS: A total of 430 patients with ESCC who underwent esophagectomy with lymphadenectomy of RLN LNs at two centers between May 2015 and June 2019 were reviewed and divided into training (center 1, n = 283) and external validation cohorts (center 2, n = 147). Independent risk factors for RLN LNM were determined by multivariate logistic regression, and a nomogram was developed. The performance of the nomogram was assessed in terms of discrimination, calibration, clinical usefulness, and prognostic value. The nomogram was internally validated by the bootstrap method and externally validated by the external validation cohort. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis indicated that clinical T stage (P <0.001), endoscopic tumor length (P = 0.003), bioptic tumor differentiation (P = 0.004), and preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level (P = 0.001) were significantly associated with RLN LNM. The nomogram had good discrimination with the area under the curve of 0.770 and 0.832 after internal and external validations. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis confirmed the good calibration and clinical usefulness of this model. High-risk of RLN LNM predicted by the nomogram was associated with worse overall survival in the external validation cohort (P <0.001). CONCLUSION: A nomogram developed by preoperative clinical characteristics demonstrated a good performance to predict RLN LNM and prognosis for patients with ESCC.