New Insights Into a Classification-Based Microvascular Invasion Prediction Model in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Most microvascular invasion (MVI)-predicting models have not considered MVI classification, and thus do not reflect true MVI effects on prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to develop a novel MVI-predicting model focused on MVI classification, hoping to provide useful information for clinical treatment strategy decision-making. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted with data from two Chinese medical centers for 800 consecutive patients with HCC (derivation cohort) and 250 matched patients (external validation cohort). MVI-associated variables were identified by ordinal logistic regression. Predictive models were constructed based on multivariate analysis results and validated internally and externally. The models’ discriminative ability and calibration ability were examined. RESULTS: Four factors associated independently with MVI: tumor diameter, tumor number, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) ≥ 176.58 U/L, and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (γ-GGT). Area under the curve (AUC)s for our M2, M1, and M0 nomograms were 0.864, 0.648, and 0.782. Internal validation of all three models was confirmed with AUC analyses in D-sets (development datasets) and V-sets (validation datasets) and C-indices for each cohort. GiViTI calibration belt plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) chi-squared calibration values demonstrated good consistency between observed frequencies and predicted probabilities for the M2 and M0 nomograms. Although the M1 nomogram was well calibrated, its discrimination was poor. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated MVI prediction models in patients with HCC that differentiate MVI classification and may provide useful guidance for treatment planning.