Impact of time to distant recurrence on breast cancer-specific mortality in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer

Women with hormone receptor (HR)-positive early-stage breast cancer (BC) have five-year survival rates of > 90% but remain at serious risk for developing distant metastases beyond five years from diagnosis. This retrospective cohort study used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries to examine associations between distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI) and risk of BC-specific mortality following distant relapse. The analysis includes 1,057 women with second primary stage IV BC who were initially diagnosed with AJCC stages I–III HR-positive BC between1990 and 2016. Overall, 65% of women had a preceding DRFI of ≥ 5 years. Five-year BC-specific survival following development of distant recurrence was 52% for women with DRFI ≥ 5 years compared to 31% in women with DRFI of < 5 years. In multivariable analyses, risks of cancer-specific mortality following distant recurrence were lower in women with DRFI of 5 years or more (subdistribution hazard ratio = 0.72, 95% CI 0.58–0.89, p = 0.002). The results of this study may inform patient-clinician discussions surrounding prognosis and treatment selection among HR-positive patients who develop a distant recurrence of disease. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10552-022-01561-2.