Cargando…

Scenario-based analysis of the impacts of lake drying on food production in the Lake Urmia Basin of Northern Iran

In many parts of the world, lake drying is caused by water management failures, while the phenomenon is exacerbated by climate change. Lake Urmia in Northern Iran is drying up at such an alarming rate that it is considered to be a dying lake, which has dire consequences for the whole region. While s...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar, Lakes, Tobia, Omarzadeh, Davoud, Sharifi, Ayyoob, Blaschke, Thomas, Karimzadeh, Sadra
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9010442/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35422458
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-10159-2
_version_ 1784687477449031680
author Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar
Lakes, Tobia
Omarzadeh, Davoud
Sharifi, Ayyoob
Blaschke, Thomas
Karimzadeh, Sadra
author_facet Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar
Lakes, Tobia
Omarzadeh, Davoud
Sharifi, Ayyoob
Blaschke, Thomas
Karimzadeh, Sadra
author_sort Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar
collection PubMed
description In many parts of the world, lake drying is caused by water management failures, while the phenomenon is exacerbated by climate change. Lake Urmia in Northern Iran is drying up at such an alarming rate that it is considered to be a dying lake, which has dire consequences for the whole region. While salinization caused by a dying lake is well understood and known to influence the local and regional food production, other potential impacts by dying lakes are as yet unknown. The food production in the Urmia region is predominantly regional and relies on local water sources. To explore the current and projected impacts of the dying lake on food production, we investigated changes in the climatic conditions, land use, and land degradation for the period 1990–2020. We examined the environmental impacts of lake drought on food production using an integrated scenario-based geoinformation framework. The results show that the lake drought has significantly affected and reduced food production over the past three decades. Based on a combination of cellular automaton and Markov modeling, we project the food production for the next 30 years and predict it will reduce further. The results of this study emphasize the critical environmental impacts of the Urmia Lake drought on food production in the region. We hope that the results will encourage authorities and environmental planners to counteract these issues and take steps to support food production. As our proposed integrated geoinformation approach considers both the extensive impacts of global climate change and the factors associated with dying lakes, we consider it to be suitable to investigate the relationships between environmental degradation and scenario-based food production in other regions with dying lakes around the world.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9010442
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Nature Publishing Group UK
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-90104422022-04-18 Scenario-based analysis of the impacts of lake drying on food production in the Lake Urmia Basin of Northern Iran Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar Lakes, Tobia Omarzadeh, Davoud Sharifi, Ayyoob Blaschke, Thomas Karimzadeh, Sadra Sci Rep Article In many parts of the world, lake drying is caused by water management failures, while the phenomenon is exacerbated by climate change. Lake Urmia in Northern Iran is drying up at such an alarming rate that it is considered to be a dying lake, which has dire consequences for the whole region. While salinization caused by a dying lake is well understood and known to influence the local and regional food production, other potential impacts by dying lakes are as yet unknown. The food production in the Urmia region is predominantly regional and relies on local water sources. To explore the current and projected impacts of the dying lake on food production, we investigated changes in the climatic conditions, land use, and land degradation for the period 1990–2020. We examined the environmental impacts of lake drought on food production using an integrated scenario-based geoinformation framework. The results show that the lake drought has significantly affected and reduced food production over the past three decades. Based on a combination of cellular automaton and Markov modeling, we project the food production for the next 30 years and predict it will reduce further. The results of this study emphasize the critical environmental impacts of the Urmia Lake drought on food production in the region. We hope that the results will encourage authorities and environmental planners to counteract these issues and take steps to support food production. As our proposed integrated geoinformation approach considers both the extensive impacts of global climate change and the factors associated with dying lakes, we consider it to be suitable to investigate the relationships between environmental degradation and scenario-based food production in other regions with dying lakes around the world. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-04-14 /pmc/articles/PMC9010442/ /pubmed/35422458 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-10159-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar
Lakes, Tobia
Omarzadeh, Davoud
Sharifi, Ayyoob
Blaschke, Thomas
Karimzadeh, Sadra
Scenario-based analysis of the impacts of lake drying on food production in the Lake Urmia Basin of Northern Iran
title Scenario-based analysis of the impacts of lake drying on food production in the Lake Urmia Basin of Northern Iran
title_full Scenario-based analysis of the impacts of lake drying on food production in the Lake Urmia Basin of Northern Iran
title_fullStr Scenario-based analysis of the impacts of lake drying on food production in the Lake Urmia Basin of Northern Iran
title_full_unstemmed Scenario-based analysis of the impacts of lake drying on food production in the Lake Urmia Basin of Northern Iran
title_short Scenario-based analysis of the impacts of lake drying on food production in the Lake Urmia Basin of Northern Iran
title_sort scenario-based analysis of the impacts of lake drying on food production in the lake urmia basin of northern iran
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9010442/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35422458
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-10159-2
work_keys_str_mv AT feizizadehbakhtiar scenariobasedanalysisoftheimpactsoflakedryingonfoodproductioninthelakeurmiabasinofnortherniran
AT lakestobia scenariobasedanalysisoftheimpactsoflakedryingonfoodproductioninthelakeurmiabasinofnortherniran
AT omarzadehdavoud scenariobasedanalysisoftheimpactsoflakedryingonfoodproductioninthelakeurmiabasinofnortherniran
AT sharifiayyoob scenariobasedanalysisoftheimpactsoflakedryingonfoodproductioninthelakeurmiabasinofnortherniran
AT blaschkethomas scenariobasedanalysisoftheimpactsoflakedryingonfoodproductioninthelakeurmiabasinofnortherniran
AT karimzadehsadra scenariobasedanalysisoftheimpactsoflakedryingonfoodproductioninthelakeurmiabasinofnortherniran