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An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic
In this study, we propose a time‐dependent susceptible‐exposed‐infected‐recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS‐CoV‐2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States, Italy, and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several types and...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9011870/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34799850 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 |
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author | Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo |
author_facet | Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo |
author_sort | Girardi, Paolo |
collection | PubMed |
description | In this study, we propose a time‐dependent susceptible‐exposed‐infected‐recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS‐CoV‐2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States, Italy, and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several types and grades of actions were adopted by the governments, including travel restrictions, social distancing, or limitation of movement, we want to investigate how these measures can affect the epidemic curve of the infectious population. The parameters of interest for the SEIR model were estimated employing a composite likelihood approach. Moreover, standard errors have been corrected for temporal dependence. The adoption of restrictive measures results in flatten epidemic curves, and the future evolution indicated a decrease in the number of cases. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9011870 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-90118702022-04-15 An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo Risk Anal Original Research Articles In this study, we propose a time‐dependent susceptible‐exposed‐infected‐recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS‐CoV‐2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States, Italy, and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several types and grades of actions were adopted by the governments, including travel restrictions, social distancing, or limitation of movement, we want to investigate how these measures can affect the epidemic curve of the infectious population. The parameters of interest for the SEIR model were estimated employing a composite likelihood approach. Moreover, standard errors have been corrected for temporal dependence. The adoption of restrictive measures results in flatten epidemic curves, and the future evolution indicated a decrease in the number of cases. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021-11-19 /pmc/articles/PMC9011870/ /pubmed/34799850 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. |
spellingShingle | Original Research Articles Girardi, Paolo Gaetan, Carlo An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic |
title | An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic |
title_full | An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic |
title_fullStr | An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic |
title_full_unstemmed | An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic |
title_short | An SEIR Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS‐CoV‐2 Epidemic |
title_sort | seir model with time‐varying coefficients for analyzing the sars‐cov‐2 epidemic |
topic | Original Research Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9011870/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34799850 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 |
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