Prognostic factors for mortality in bullous pemphigoid: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To systematically evaluate the prognostic factors for mortality in bullous pemphigoid. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, China Biology Medicine disc and Wanfang Database were searched to collect literature on the prognostic factors for mortality in bullous pemphigoid. The quality of studies was assessed by Newcastle–Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Two researchers extracted relevant data and scored study quality independently. The hazard ratio (HR) was calculated using the random effects model. Study heterogeneity was assessed using both Cochran’s Q test and I(2) statistics. The causes of heterogeneity were assessed by subgroup analysis and/ or sensitivity analysis when heterogeneity was significant. When ten or more studies were included as outcome indicators, publication bias was evaluated by funnel plot and Egger’s test. RESULTS: Out of a total of 1,546 articles retrieved, 15 studies involving 2,435 patients were included. The meta-analysis showed that the mortality of patients with bullous pemphigoid increased with positive bullous pemphigoid 180 antibody (HR = 1.85, 95%CI: 1.25~2.75, P = 0.002); concomitant dementia (HR = 2.26, 95%CI: 1.43~3.59, P<0.001); stroke (HR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.23–3.55, P = 0.007); heart disease (HR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.41–2.73, P<0.001) and diabetes mellitus (HR = 2.39, 95% CI: 1.55–3.69, P<0.001). Sex, positive indirect immunofluorescence and hypertension were not associated with prognosis. CONCLUSION: Positive bullous pemphigoid 180 antibody, dementia, stroke, heart disease and diabetes mellitus were the prognostic factors for mortality in bullous pemphigoid.