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External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study
BACKGROUND: Several reliable predictive models for falls have been reported, but are too complicated and time-consuming to evaluate. We recently developed a new predictive model using just eight easily-available parameters including the official Japanese activities of daily living scale, Bedriddenne...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9013105/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35428196 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12877-022-02871-5 |
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author | Tago, Masaki Katsuki, Naoko E. Nakatani, Eiji Tokushima, Midori Dogomori, Akiko Mori, Kazumi Yamashita, Shun Oda, Yoshimasa Yamashita, Shu-ichi |
author_facet | Tago, Masaki Katsuki, Naoko E. Nakatani, Eiji Tokushima, Midori Dogomori, Akiko Mori, Kazumi Yamashita, Shun Oda, Yoshimasa Yamashita, Shu-ichi |
author_sort | Tago, Masaki |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Several reliable predictive models for falls have been reported, but are too complicated and time-consuming to evaluate. We recently developed a new predictive model using just eight easily-available parameters including the official Japanese activities of daily living scale, Bedriddenness ranks, from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. This model has not yet been prospectively validated. This study aims to prospectively validate our new predictive model for falls among inpatients admitted to two different hospitals. METHODS: A double-centered prospective cohort study was performed from October 1, 2018, to September 30, 2019 in an acute care hospital and a chronic care hospital. We analyzed data from all adult inpatients, for whom all data required by the predictive model were evaluated and recorded. The eight items required by the predictive model were age, gender, emergency admission, department of admission, use of hypnotic medications, previous falls, independence of eating, and Bedriddenness ranks. The main outcome is in-hospital falls among adult inpatients, and the model was assessed by area under the curve. RESULTS: A total of 3,551 adult participants were available, who experienced 125 falls (3.5%). The median age (interquartile range) was 78 (66–87) years, 1,701 (47.9%) were men, and the incidence of falls was 2.25 per 1,000 patient-days and 2.06 per 1,000 occupied bed days. The area under the curve of the model was 0.793 (95% confidence interval: 0.761–0.825). The cutoff value was set as − 2.18, making the specificity 90% with the positive predictive value and negative predictive value at 11.4% and 97%. CONCLUSIONS: This double-centered prospective cohort external validation study showed that the new predictive model had excellent validity for falls among inpatients. This reliable and easy-to-use model is therefore recommended for prediction of falls among inpatients, to improve preventive interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UMIN000040103 (2020/04/08) SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-02871-5. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9013105 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-90131052022-04-17 External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study Tago, Masaki Katsuki, Naoko E. Nakatani, Eiji Tokushima, Midori Dogomori, Akiko Mori, Kazumi Yamashita, Shun Oda, Yoshimasa Yamashita, Shu-ichi BMC Geriatr Research BACKGROUND: Several reliable predictive models for falls have been reported, but are too complicated and time-consuming to evaluate. We recently developed a new predictive model using just eight easily-available parameters including the official Japanese activities of daily living scale, Bedriddenness ranks, from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. This model has not yet been prospectively validated. This study aims to prospectively validate our new predictive model for falls among inpatients admitted to two different hospitals. METHODS: A double-centered prospective cohort study was performed from October 1, 2018, to September 30, 2019 in an acute care hospital and a chronic care hospital. We analyzed data from all adult inpatients, for whom all data required by the predictive model were evaluated and recorded. The eight items required by the predictive model were age, gender, emergency admission, department of admission, use of hypnotic medications, previous falls, independence of eating, and Bedriddenness ranks. The main outcome is in-hospital falls among adult inpatients, and the model was assessed by area under the curve. RESULTS: A total of 3,551 adult participants were available, who experienced 125 falls (3.5%). The median age (interquartile range) was 78 (66–87) years, 1,701 (47.9%) were men, and the incidence of falls was 2.25 per 1,000 patient-days and 2.06 per 1,000 occupied bed days. The area under the curve of the model was 0.793 (95% confidence interval: 0.761–0.825). The cutoff value was set as − 2.18, making the specificity 90% with the positive predictive value and negative predictive value at 11.4% and 97%. CONCLUSIONS: This double-centered prospective cohort external validation study showed that the new predictive model had excellent validity for falls among inpatients. This reliable and easy-to-use model is therefore recommended for prediction of falls among inpatients, to improve preventive interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UMIN000040103 (2020/04/08) SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-02871-5. BioMed Central 2022-04-15 /pmc/articles/PMC9013105/ /pubmed/35428196 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12877-022-02871-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Tago, Masaki Katsuki, Naoko E. Nakatani, Eiji Tokushima, Midori Dogomori, Akiko Mori, Kazumi Yamashita, Shun Oda, Yoshimasa Yamashita, Shu-ichi External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study |
title | External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study |
title_full | External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study |
title_fullStr | External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study |
title_full_unstemmed | External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study |
title_short | External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study |
title_sort | external validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official japanese adl scale, bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9013105/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35428196 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12877-022-02871-5 |
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