Mean generation function model in AIDS epidemic estimation

BACKGROUND: Since the first case of HIV infection was reported in China in 1985, the incidence and mortality of AIDS have been increasing rapidly, which has caused serious damage to the life and health of people in China and all over the world. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the technique for predicting AIDS morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this research is to explore the applicability of the mean generation function model (MGFM) in the early warning of AIDS morbidity and mortality, to predict its prevalence trend, to enrich the prediction techniques and methods of AIDS research and to provide suggestions for AIDS transmission control. METHODS: In this research, the MGFM was applied to predict the incidence and mortality of AIDS in China. AIDS incidence and mortality data in China from 2008 to 2019 were used to construct the prediction model. RESULTS: The MGFM can predict the annual incidence and mortality of AIDS. The model constructed in this research predicted that the incidence and mortality of AIDS in China will continue to increase from 2020 to 2023. CONCLUSION: The mean birth function model was an effective method to monitor and predict the changing trend of AIDS incidence and mortality in China. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-022-01825-6.