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Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS‐CoV‐2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark

The Omicron variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) has become widespread across the world in a flashing manner. As of December 7, 2021, a total of 758 Omicron cases were confirmed in Denmark. Using the nucleotide sequences of the Delta and Omicron variants regist...

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Autores principales: Ito, Kimihito, Piantham, Chayada, Nishiura, Hiroshi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9015237/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34967453
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jmv.27560
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author Ito, Kimihito
Piantham, Chayada
Nishiura, Hiroshi
author_facet Ito, Kimihito
Piantham, Chayada
Nishiura, Hiroshi
author_sort Ito, Kimihito
collection PubMed
description The Omicron variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) has become widespread across the world in a flashing manner. As of December 7, 2021, a total of 758 Omicron cases were confirmed in Denmark. Using the nucleotide sequences of the Delta and Omicron variants registered from Denmark in the GISAID database, we found that the effective (instantaneous) reproduction number of Omicron is 3.19 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.82–3.61) times greater than that of Delta under the same epidemiological conditions. The proportion of Omicron infections among all SARS‐CoV‐2 infections in Denmark was expected to exceed 95% on December 28, 2021, with a 95% CI from December 25 to December 31, 2021. Given that the Delta variant or variants less transmissible than Delta are dominant in most countries, the rapid increase in Omicron in the virus population may be observed as soon as the Omicron is introduced. Preparing proactive control measures is vital, assuming the substantial advantage of the transmission by Omicron.
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spelling pubmed-90152372022-04-19 Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS‐CoV‐2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark Ito, Kimihito Piantham, Chayada Nishiura, Hiroshi J Med Virol Short Communication The Omicron variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) has become widespread across the world in a flashing manner. As of December 7, 2021, a total of 758 Omicron cases were confirmed in Denmark. Using the nucleotide sequences of the Delta and Omicron variants registered from Denmark in the GISAID database, we found that the effective (instantaneous) reproduction number of Omicron is 3.19 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.82–3.61) times greater than that of Delta under the same epidemiological conditions. The proportion of Omicron infections among all SARS‐CoV‐2 infections in Denmark was expected to exceed 95% on December 28, 2021, with a 95% CI from December 25 to December 31, 2021. Given that the Delta variant or variants less transmissible than Delta are dominant in most countries, the rapid increase in Omicron in the virus population may be observed as soon as the Omicron is introduced. Preparing proactive control measures is vital, assuming the substantial advantage of the transmission by Omicron. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022-01-11 2022-05 /pmc/articles/PMC9015237/ /pubmed/34967453 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jmv.27560 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Medical Virology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
spellingShingle Short Communication
Ito, Kimihito
Piantham, Chayada
Nishiura, Hiroshi
Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS‐CoV‐2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark
title Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS‐CoV‐2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark
title_full Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS‐CoV‐2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark
title_fullStr Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS‐CoV‐2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark
title_full_unstemmed Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS‐CoV‐2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark
title_short Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS‐CoV‐2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark
title_sort relative instantaneous reproduction number of omicron sars‐cov‐2 variant with respect to the delta variant in denmark
topic Short Communication
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9015237/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34967453
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jmv.27560
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