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Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks

Considerable uncertainty and debate exist in projecting the future capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO(2). Here we estimate spatially explicit patterns of biomass loss by tree mortality (LOSS) from largely unmanaged forest plots to constrain projected (2015–2099) net primary productivity...

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Autores principales: Yu, Kailiang, Ciais, Philippe, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Liu, Zhihua, Chen, Han Y. H., Barichivich, Jonathan, Allen, Craig D., Yang, Hui, Huang, Yuanyuan, Ballantyne, Ashley P.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9018757/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35440564
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29619-4
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author Yu, Kailiang
Ciais, Philippe
Seneviratne, Sonia I.
Liu, Zhihua
Chen, Han Y. H.
Barichivich, Jonathan
Allen, Craig D.
Yang, Hui
Huang, Yuanyuan
Ballantyne, Ashley P.
author_facet Yu, Kailiang
Ciais, Philippe
Seneviratne, Sonia I.
Liu, Zhihua
Chen, Han Y. H.
Barichivich, Jonathan
Allen, Craig D.
Yang, Hui
Huang, Yuanyuan
Ballantyne, Ashley P.
author_sort Yu, Kailiang
collection PubMed
description Considerable uncertainty and debate exist in projecting the future capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO(2). Here we estimate spatially explicit patterns of biomass loss by tree mortality (LOSS) from largely unmanaged forest plots to constrain projected (2015–2099) net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (HR) and net carbon sink in six dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) across continents. This approach relies on a strong relationship among LOSS, NPP, and HR at continental or biome scales. The DGVMs overestimated historical LOSS, particularly in tropical regions and eastern North America by as much as 5 Mg ha(−1) y(−1). The modeled spread of DGVM-projected NPP and HR uncertainties was substantially reduced in tropical regions after incorporating the field-based mortality constraint. The observation-constrained models show a decrease in the tropical forest carbon sink by the end of the century, particularly across South America (from 2 to 1.4 PgC y(−1)), and an increase in the sink in North America (from 0.8 to 1.1 PgC y(−1)). These results highlight the feasibility of using forest demographic data to empirically constrain forest carbon sink projections and the potential overestimation of projected tropical forest carbon sinks.
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spelling pubmed-90187572022-04-28 Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks Yu, Kailiang Ciais, Philippe Seneviratne, Sonia I. Liu, Zhihua Chen, Han Y. H. Barichivich, Jonathan Allen, Craig D. Yang, Hui Huang, Yuanyuan Ballantyne, Ashley P. Nat Commun Article Considerable uncertainty and debate exist in projecting the future capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO(2). Here we estimate spatially explicit patterns of biomass loss by tree mortality (LOSS) from largely unmanaged forest plots to constrain projected (2015–2099) net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (HR) and net carbon sink in six dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) across continents. This approach relies on a strong relationship among LOSS, NPP, and HR at continental or biome scales. The DGVMs overestimated historical LOSS, particularly in tropical regions and eastern North America by as much as 5 Mg ha(−1) y(−1). The modeled spread of DGVM-projected NPP and HR uncertainties was substantially reduced in tropical regions after incorporating the field-based mortality constraint. The observation-constrained models show a decrease in the tropical forest carbon sink by the end of the century, particularly across South America (from 2 to 1.4 PgC y(−1)), and an increase in the sink in North America (from 0.8 to 1.1 PgC y(−1)). These results highlight the feasibility of using forest demographic data to empirically constrain forest carbon sink projections and the potential overestimation of projected tropical forest carbon sinks. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-04-19 /pmc/articles/PMC9018757/ /pubmed/35440564 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29619-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Yu, Kailiang
Ciais, Philippe
Seneviratne, Sonia I.
Liu, Zhihua
Chen, Han Y. H.
Barichivich, Jonathan
Allen, Craig D.
Yang, Hui
Huang, Yuanyuan
Ballantyne, Ashley P.
Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks
title Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks
title_full Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks
title_fullStr Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks
title_full_unstemmed Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks
title_short Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks
title_sort field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9018757/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35440564
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29619-4
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