Carbon Emission Risk and Governance

Within the hazard and disaster risk research field, explicitly treating carbon emissions as a hazard remains rather nascent. Applying hazard and disaster risk research perspectives to seek new insights on integrated mitigation and adaptation approaches and policy measures is equally elusive. Since China’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the “dual carbon” goals of carbon emission peaking and neutrality have stimulated nationwide attention, research, and policies and action plans. How to ensure that the transition pathways are on track and well-contextualized is one of the crucial challenges for policymakers and practitioners. This article examines the “risks” of missing the carbon neutrality goal at a regional scale in China, denoted as Carbon Emission Risk (CER). Carbon emissions (CE) as hazard, combined with the human socioeconomic system as exposure and human living environment, constitute the regional carbon emission environmental risk system. The “risks” of missing (or achieving) the carbon neutrality target for any region at any time, the article argues, is essentially determined by the ratio of CE to carbon absorption (CA, for uptake and removal). These variables are modified by a broadly defined “vulnerability coefficient” (Cv) that embodies both the potential for changes (decreasing CE and increasing CA), and the uncertainties of measuring CE and CA. Thus, the ratio of CE to CA is a measure of reality at any moment of time, whereas Cv indicates the overall propensity or capacity for moving the CE/CA ratio towards 1, that is, realizing carbon neutrality. Based on our calculation, CER at the provincial level in eastern China is higher than in western China. The article also calls for strengthening CER research and summarizes key measures for carbon emission risk governance.