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Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to characterize and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disease burden between 2021 and 2050 in Qatar where 89% of the population comprises expatriates from over 150 countries. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: An age-structured mathematical model was used to forecast T2DM bur...

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Autores principales: Awad, Susanne F, A Toumi, Amine, A Al-Mutawaa, Kholood, A Alyafei, Salah, A Ijaz, Muhammad, A H Khalifa, Shamseldin, B Kokku, Suresh, C M Mishra, Amit, V Poovelil, Benjamin, B Soussi, Mounir, G El-Nahas, Katie, O Al-Hamaq, Abdulla, A Critchley, Julia, H Al-Thani, Mohammed, Abu-Raddad, Laith J
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BMJ Publishing Group 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9021773/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35443971
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2021-002704
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author Awad, Susanne F
A Toumi, Amine
A Al-Mutawaa, Kholood
A Alyafei, Salah
A Ijaz, Muhammad
A H Khalifa, Shamseldin
B Kokku, Suresh
C M Mishra, Amit
V Poovelil, Benjamin
B Soussi, Mounir
G El-Nahas, Katie
O Al-Hamaq, Abdulla
A Critchley, Julia
H Al-Thani, Mohammed
Abu-Raddad, Laith J
author_facet Awad, Susanne F
A Toumi, Amine
A Al-Mutawaa, Kholood
A Alyafei, Salah
A Ijaz, Muhammad
A H Khalifa, Shamseldin
B Kokku, Suresh
C M Mishra, Amit
V Poovelil, Benjamin
B Soussi, Mounir
G El-Nahas, Katie
O Al-Hamaq, Abdulla
A Critchley, Julia
H Al-Thani, Mohammed
Abu-Raddad, Laith J
author_sort Awad, Susanne F
collection PubMed
description INTRODUCTION: We aimed to characterize and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disease burden between 2021 and 2050 in Qatar where 89% of the population comprises expatriates from over 150 countries. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: An age-structured mathematical model was used to forecast T2DM burden and the impact of key risk factors (obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity). The model was parametrized using data from T2DM natural history studies, Qatar’s 2012 STEPwise survey, the Global Health Observatory, and the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, among other data sources. RESULTS: Between 2021 and 2050, T2DM prevalence increased from 7.0% to 14.0%, the number of people living with T2DM increased from 170 057 to 596 862, and the annual number of new T2DM cases increased from 25 007 to 45 155 among those 20–79 years of age living in Qatar. Obesity prevalence increased from 8.2% to 12.5%, smoking declined from 28.3% to 26.9%, and physical inactivity increased from 23.1% to 26.8%. The proportion of incident T2DM cases attributed to obesity increased from 21.9% to 29.9%, while the contribution of smoking and physical inactivity decreased from 7.1% to 6.0% and from 7.3% to 7.2%, respectively. The results showed substantial variability across various nationality groups residing in Qatar—for example, in Qataris and Egyptians, the T2DM burden was mainly due to obesity, while in other nationality groups, it appeared to be multifactorial. CONCLUSIONS: T2DM prevalence and incidence in Qatar were forecasted to increase sharply by 2050, highlighting the rapidly growing need of healthcare resources to address the disease burden. T2DM epidemiology varied between nationality groups, stressing the need for prevention and treatment intervention strategies tailored to each nationality.
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spelling pubmed-90217732022-05-04 Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis Awad, Susanne F A Toumi, Amine A Al-Mutawaa, Kholood A Alyafei, Salah A Ijaz, Muhammad A H Khalifa, Shamseldin B Kokku, Suresh C M Mishra, Amit V Poovelil, Benjamin B Soussi, Mounir G El-Nahas, Katie O Al-Hamaq, Abdulla A Critchley, Julia H Al-Thani, Mohammed Abu-Raddad, Laith J BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care Epidemiology/Health services research INTRODUCTION: We aimed to characterize and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disease burden between 2021 and 2050 in Qatar where 89% of the population comprises expatriates from over 150 countries. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: An age-structured mathematical model was used to forecast T2DM burden and the impact of key risk factors (obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity). The model was parametrized using data from T2DM natural history studies, Qatar’s 2012 STEPwise survey, the Global Health Observatory, and the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, among other data sources. RESULTS: Between 2021 and 2050, T2DM prevalence increased from 7.0% to 14.0%, the number of people living with T2DM increased from 170 057 to 596 862, and the annual number of new T2DM cases increased from 25 007 to 45 155 among those 20–79 years of age living in Qatar. Obesity prevalence increased from 8.2% to 12.5%, smoking declined from 28.3% to 26.9%, and physical inactivity increased from 23.1% to 26.8%. The proportion of incident T2DM cases attributed to obesity increased from 21.9% to 29.9%, while the contribution of smoking and physical inactivity decreased from 7.1% to 6.0% and from 7.3% to 7.2%, respectively. The results showed substantial variability across various nationality groups residing in Qatar—for example, in Qataris and Egyptians, the T2DM burden was mainly due to obesity, while in other nationality groups, it appeared to be multifactorial. CONCLUSIONS: T2DM prevalence and incidence in Qatar were forecasted to increase sharply by 2050, highlighting the rapidly growing need of healthcare resources to address the disease burden. T2DM epidemiology varied between nationality groups, stressing the need for prevention and treatment intervention strategies tailored to each nationality. BMJ Publishing Group 2022-04-20 /pmc/articles/PMC9021773/ /pubmed/35443971 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2021-002704 Text en © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Epidemiology/Health services research
Awad, Susanne F
A Toumi, Amine
A Al-Mutawaa, Kholood
A Alyafei, Salah
A Ijaz, Muhammad
A H Khalifa, Shamseldin
B Kokku, Suresh
C M Mishra, Amit
V Poovelil, Benjamin
B Soussi, Mounir
G El-Nahas, Katie
O Al-Hamaq, Abdulla
A Critchley, Julia
H Al-Thani, Mohammed
Abu-Raddad, Laith J
Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis
title Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis
title_full Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis
title_fullStr Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis
title_full_unstemmed Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis
title_short Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis
title_sort type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis
topic Epidemiology/Health services research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9021773/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35443971
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2021-002704
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