Prognostic Nomogram for Early Gastric Cancer After Surgery to Assist Decision-Making for Treatment With Adjuvant Chemotherapy

Background: Most patients with early gastric cancer (EGC) can achieve a better 5-year survival rate after endoscopic resection or surgery. However, indications for adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) after surgery have not yet been determined. Methods: A total of 4,108 patients with EGC diagnosed in 2004–2016 were retrospectively analyzed using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Of these, 3,521 patients received postoperative ACT and 587 patients did not. Propensity score matching was used to balance the two groups’ confounding factors. Kaplan-Meier method was utilized to perform survival analysis. Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between survival curves. Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to screen independent risk factors and build a nomogram for the non-ACT group. The X-tile software was employed to artificially divide all patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups according to the overall survival score prediction based on the nomogram. A total of 493 patients with EGC diagnosed between 2010 and 2014 in our hospital were included for external validation. Results: Multivariate analysis found that age, sex, race, marital status, primary site, surgical extent, and metastatic lymph node ratio in the non-ACT group were independent prognostic factors for EGC and were included in the construction of the nomogram. The model C-index was 0.730 (95% confidence interval: 0.677–0.783). The patients were divided into three different risk groups based on the nomogram prediction score. Patients in the low-risk group did not benefit from ACT, while patients in the moderate- and high-risk groups did. External validation also demonstrated that moderate- and high-risk patients benefited from ACT. Conclusion: The study nomogram can effectively evaluate postoperative prognosis of patients with EGC. Postoperative ACT is therefore recommended for moderate- and high-risk patients, but not for low-risk patients.