‘Fly to a Safer North’: Distributional Shifts of the Orchid Ophrys insectifera L. Due to Climate Change

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Climate change is one of the major threats to plant diversity and is expected to force species distributions into latitudinal or altitudinal shifts. The complex biology of orchids, and their many interactions with other organisms, increases their vulnerability in a changing climate. This study focuses on how climatic alterations will affect the distribution of the fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.), one of the most well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, using models that predict the species range changes in the future, based on environmental factors. The orchid’s environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards but downhill in the future, experiencing a moderate overall range contraction. More specifically in near- and long-term future, it is expected to be lost in South Europe, especially from the Balkans, while it will gain areas in North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries being among the winners. These results, although conservative since they are based only on abiotic variables, provide useful insights on the fly orchid’s response to future climatic change, and can serve as a basis for further studies on a finer scale. ABSTRACT: Numerous orchid species around the world have already been affected by the ongoing climate change, displaying phenological alterations and considerable changes to their distributions. The fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.) is a well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, with a broad distribution across the continent. This study explores the effects of climate change on the range of O. insectifera, using a species distribution models (SDMs) framework that encompasses different climatic models and scenarios for the near- and long-term future. The species’ environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards (as expected) but downhill (contrary to usual expectations) in the future. In addition, an overall range contraction is predicted under all investigated combinations of climatic models and scenarios. While this is moderate overall, it includes some regions of severe loss and other areas with major gains. Specifically, O. insectifera is projected to experience major area loss in its southern reaches (the Balkans, Italy and Spain), while it will expand its northern limits to North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries exhibiting the largest gains.