A Bayesian Approach to Describe and Simulate the pH Evolution of Fresh Meat Products Depending on the Preservation Conditions

Measuring the pH of meat products during storage represents an efficient way to monitor microbial spoilage, since pH is often linked to the growth of several spoilage-associated microorganisms under different conditions. The present work aimed to develop a modelling approach to describe and simulate the pH evolution of fresh meat products, depending on the preservation conditions. The measurement of pH on fresh poultry sausages, made with several lactate formulations and packed under three modified atmospheres (MAP), from several industrial production batches, was used as case-study. A hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to better adjust kinetic models while handling a low number of measurement points. The pH changes were described as a two-phase evolution, with a first decreasing phase followed by a stabilisation phase. This stabilisation likely took place around the 13th day of storage, under all the considered lactate and MAP conditions. The effects of lactate and MAP on pH previously observed were confirmed herein: (i) lactate addition notably slowed down acidification, regardless of the packaging, whereas (ii) the 50%CO(2)-50%N(2) MAP accelerated the acidification phase. The Bayesian modelling workflow—and the script—could be used for further model adaptation for the pH of other food products and/or other preservation strategies.