Better Late Than Never: Predictors of Delayed COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake in Poland

In this study, regression models were created to explain the increase of COVID-19 vaccination rates in 378 Polish sub-regions. In order to trace the factors that could explain the willingness to delay vaccination, vaccination rates were compared for age groups of 20 years and more for 30 June 2020 and 31 January 2021. Initially high vaccination rates, rather than leading to the gradual exhaustion of the pool of those wishing to get vaccinated, were a very good predictor of the share of the remainder willing to do so, which increased the divergence between sub-regions in nominal vaccination rates. Support for Eurosceptic and anti-establishment parties was a strong predictor of persistent vaccine hesitancy. Ideological divergence from the mainstream appeared to reinforce vaccine hesitancy, and this relationship remained highly relevant even when controlling for possible time or spatial lag. Markers of social inclusion and social capital—voter turnout and employment rate—remained statistically significant even when controlling for time lag, thus implying clear relevance of trust in the public message. The share of the population with higher education remained a highly relevant factor as well, though in the 20–39 age bracket it predicted a higher vaccination rate, while in all older brackets it was a negative predictor—this implies that those people had already made up their minds. Delaying vaccination seems predominantly explainable by political views, as well as social exclusion and the historical specificity of sub-regions. On a regional level, there was actually a paradoxical Spearmans Rho correlation (0.641) between the share of population refusing mandatory vaccination for kids and the percentage of people receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, which further undermines the idea that overall observed vaccine hesitancy was in any meaningful way affected by anti-vaccine movements.