Air Pollution and Settlement Intention: Evidence from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey

This study analyses the effect of air pollution on the settlement intention of migrants in China. In recent years, the willingness of residents to migrate induced by air pollution has received a lot of attention from academics. By matching information from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2015 to 2017 with the air quality index (AQI), we used the Probit model to assess the impact of air pollution on the settlement intentions of migrants with different socioeconomic statuses. First, we demonstrated that air pollution has a significant negative effect on migrants’ settlement intention. Second, we found that the effect of air pollution on settlement intention is influenced by individual socioeconomic status; that education level, as an indicator of cognitive ability, affects migrants’ motivation to migrate; and that personal income, as an indicator of economic ability, affects the feasibility of their migration. Motivation to migrate and the feasibility of moving determine together the divergence in settlement intention, and those with higher incomes and higher education levels are more likely to leave cities with serious air pollution. Third, the heterogeneous effects suggested that the negative effect of air pollution was greater for older, male, and married migrants. Our findings suggested that air pollution has a variety of effects on the heterogeneous migrants, resulting in changes in the demographic structure of cities.