COVID-19 Delta Wave Caused Early Overburden of Hospital Capacity in the Bulgarian Healthcare System in 2021

We develop and apply our methodology to estimate the overburdening of hospitals in Bulgaria during the upcoming delta surge. We base our estimations on an exponential risk model from the UK. Still, the methodology is generally applicable to all risk models, depending on age. Our hypothesis is that d...

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Autores principales: Tomov, Latchezar P., Batselova, Hristiana M., Velikova, Tsvetelina V.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9031990/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35455778
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare10040600
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author Tomov, Latchezar P.
Batselova, Hristiana M.
Velikova, Tsvetelina V.
author_facet Tomov, Latchezar P.
Batselova, Hristiana M.
Velikova, Tsvetelina V.
author_sort Tomov, Latchezar P.
collection PubMed
description We develop and apply our methodology to estimate the overburdening of hospitals in Bulgaria during the upcoming delta surge. We base our estimations on an exponential risk model from the UK. Still, the methodology is generally applicable to all risk models, depending on age. Our hypothesis is that during the delta wave in Bulgaria, the system experienced a burden from late August due to decreased capacity. This will explain most of the excess mortality during the wave. We estimate the number of people from the active cases in need of hospitalization and intensive care.
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spelling pubmed-90319902022-04-23 COVID-19 Delta Wave Caused Early Overburden of Hospital Capacity in the Bulgarian Healthcare System in 2021 Tomov, Latchezar P. Batselova, Hristiana M. Velikova, Tsvetelina V. Healthcare (Basel) Article We develop and apply our methodology to estimate the overburdening of hospitals in Bulgaria during the upcoming delta surge. We base our estimations on an exponential risk model from the UK. Still, the methodology is generally applicable to all risk models, depending on age. Our hypothesis is that during the delta wave in Bulgaria, the system experienced a burden from late August due to decreased capacity. This will explain most of the excess mortality during the wave. We estimate the number of people from the active cases in need of hospitalization and intensive care. MDPI 2022-03-22 /pmc/articles/PMC9031990/ /pubmed/35455778 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare10040600 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Tomov, Latchezar P.
Batselova, Hristiana M.
Velikova, Tsvetelina V.
COVID-19 Delta Wave Caused Early Overburden of Hospital Capacity in the Bulgarian Healthcare System in 2021
title COVID-19 Delta Wave Caused Early Overburden of Hospital Capacity in the Bulgarian Healthcare System in 2021
title_full COVID-19 Delta Wave Caused Early Overburden of Hospital Capacity in the Bulgarian Healthcare System in 2021
title_fullStr COVID-19 Delta Wave Caused Early Overburden of Hospital Capacity in the Bulgarian Healthcare System in 2021
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 Delta Wave Caused Early Overburden of Hospital Capacity in the Bulgarian Healthcare System in 2021
title_short COVID-19 Delta Wave Caused Early Overburden of Hospital Capacity in the Bulgarian Healthcare System in 2021
title_sort covid-19 delta wave caused early overburden of hospital capacity in the bulgarian healthcare system in 2021
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9031990/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35455778
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare10040600
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AT velikovatsvetelinav covid19deltawavecausedearlyoverburdenofhospitalcapacityinthebulgarianhealthcaresystemin2021

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