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What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value

Fitness is at the core of evolutionary theory, but it is difficult to measure accurately. One way to measure long-term fitness is by calculating the individual’s reproductive value, which represents the expected number of allele copies an individual passes on to distant future generations. However,...

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Autores principales: Alif, Živa, Dunning, Jamie, Chik, Heung Ying Janet, Burke, Terry, Schroeder, Julia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9032343/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35452482
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260905
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author Alif, Živa
Dunning, Jamie
Chik, Heung Ying Janet
Burke, Terry
Schroeder, Julia
author_facet Alif, Živa
Dunning, Jamie
Chik, Heung Ying Janet
Burke, Terry
Schroeder, Julia
author_sort Alif, Živa
collection PubMed
description Fitness is at the core of evolutionary theory, but it is difficult to measure accurately. One way to measure long-term fitness is by calculating the individual’s reproductive value, which represents the expected number of allele copies an individual passes on to distant future generations. However, this metric of fitness is scarcely used because the estimation of individual’s reproductive value requires long-term pedigree data, which is rarely available in wild populations where following individuals from birth to death is often impossible. Wild study systems therefore use short-term fitness metrics as proxies, such as the number of offspring produced. This study compared two frequently used short-term metrics for fitness obtained at different offspring life stages (eggs, hatchlings, fledglings and recruits), and compared their ability to predict reproductive values derived from the genetic pedigree of a wild passerine bird population. We used twenty years of precise field observations and a near-complete genetic pedigree to calculate reproductive success, individual growth rate and de-lifed fitness as lifetime fitness measures, and as annual de-lifed fitness. We compared the power of these metrics to predict reproductive values and lineage survival to the end of the study period. The three short-term fitness proxies predict the reproductive values and lineage survival only when measured at the recruit stage. There were no significant differences between the different fitness proxies at the same offspring stages in predicting the reproductive values and lineage survival. Annual fitness at one year old predicted reproductive values equally well as lifetime de-lifed fitness. However, none of the short-term fitness proxies were strongly associated with the reproductive values. The commonly used short-term fitness proxies best predict long-term fitness when measured at recruitment stage. Thus, because lifetime fitness measured at recruit stage and annual fitness in the first year of life were the best proxies of long-term fitness in short-lived birds, we encourage their future use.
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spelling pubmed-90323432022-04-23 What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value Alif, Živa Dunning, Jamie Chik, Heung Ying Janet Burke, Terry Schroeder, Julia PLoS One Research Article Fitness is at the core of evolutionary theory, but it is difficult to measure accurately. One way to measure long-term fitness is by calculating the individual’s reproductive value, which represents the expected number of allele copies an individual passes on to distant future generations. However, this metric of fitness is scarcely used because the estimation of individual’s reproductive value requires long-term pedigree data, which is rarely available in wild populations where following individuals from birth to death is often impossible. Wild study systems therefore use short-term fitness metrics as proxies, such as the number of offspring produced. This study compared two frequently used short-term metrics for fitness obtained at different offspring life stages (eggs, hatchlings, fledglings and recruits), and compared their ability to predict reproductive values derived from the genetic pedigree of a wild passerine bird population. We used twenty years of precise field observations and a near-complete genetic pedigree to calculate reproductive success, individual growth rate and de-lifed fitness as lifetime fitness measures, and as annual de-lifed fitness. We compared the power of these metrics to predict reproductive values and lineage survival to the end of the study period. The three short-term fitness proxies predict the reproductive values and lineage survival only when measured at the recruit stage. There were no significant differences between the different fitness proxies at the same offspring stages in predicting the reproductive values and lineage survival. Annual fitness at one year old predicted reproductive values equally well as lifetime de-lifed fitness. However, none of the short-term fitness proxies were strongly associated with the reproductive values. The commonly used short-term fitness proxies best predict long-term fitness when measured at recruitment stage. Thus, because lifetime fitness measured at recruit stage and annual fitness in the first year of life were the best proxies of long-term fitness in short-lived birds, we encourage their future use. Public Library of Science 2022-04-22 /pmc/articles/PMC9032343/ /pubmed/35452482 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260905 Text en © 2022 Alif et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Alif, Živa
Dunning, Jamie
Chik, Heung Ying Janet
Burke, Terry
Schroeder, Julia
What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value
title What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value
title_full What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value
title_fullStr What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value
title_full_unstemmed What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value
title_short What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value
title_sort what is the best fitness measure in wild populations? a case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9032343/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35452482
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260905
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