Signs of left atrial disease and 10-year risk of atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND: The contribution of left atrial disease and excessive supraventricular ectopic activity (ESVEA) to the risk for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is incompletely understood. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the ten-year risk to develop AF in patients with cardiovascular risk factors and to define the impact of parameters of left atrial disease and ESVEA on AF risk. METHODS: 148 patients from the Diast-CHF trial with at least one cardiovascular risk factor and free of AF at baseline were followed for 10 years. Left atrial disease was defined as left atrial volume index (LAVI) >35 ml/m(2), P-terminal force in lead V(1) (PTFV(1)) >4000 ms*μV or elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) >250 pg/ml. We analyzed the association of these parameters and ESVEA (either >720 premature atrial contractions (PAC) or one atrial run >20 beats per day) on AF-free survival. RESULTS: After ten years, AF was newly detected in twelve patients (13.4%) with signs of left atrial disease and two patients (3.4%) without signs of left atrial disease (p = 0.04). LAVI (p = 0.005), ESVEA (p = 0.016) and NT-proBNP (p = 0.010) were significantly associated with AF-free survival in univariate analysis. A combined Cox model of left atrial disease parameters showed associations for NT-proBNP (HR 3.56; 95%CI 1.33–5.31; p = 0.04) and PAC (HR 2.66; 95%CI 1.25–10.15; p = 0.01) but not for LAVI or PTFV(1) with AF-free survival. CONCLUSION: The risk for AF is higher in patients with cardiovascular risk factors and signs of left atrial disease. NT-proBNP and premature atrial contractions independently predict AF-free survival. The role of excessive supraventricular ectopic activity for the assessment of AF risk may be underestimated and requires further study.