Risk factors and clustering of mortality among older adults in the India Human Development Survey

With wide socioeconomic mortality differential among older adults in India, a constant question of death clustering across high-risk families and communities arises. The present study uses a follow-up survey from India to investigate the socioeconomic, demographic and health predictors of old-age mortality clustering. Data of 16,964 older adults nested within 12,981 households from 2352 communities were used from India Human Development Survey (IHDS) round-I (2005) who were further tracked down in round-II (2012). Bivariate association between the determinants of old-age mortality was investigated using the log-rank test. The multivariate analysis involved estimating the random-intercept Weibull proportional hazard model with three levels—individual (level 1), family (level 2) and community (level 3). We analyzed the sensitivity of multivariate results to unobservable variable and selection biases using the e-value method. The empirical analysis confirms that the risk of mortality is significantly heterogeneous between the families. The health status of older adults and the family’s socioeconomic status in the early years emerged as prominent predictors of a longer lifespan. With a strong association between household income and mortality hazard risk, the present study urges early life interventions as those started in late-life might have negligible impact on keeping the older adults alive and healthy.