A seven-autophagy-related gene signature for predicting the prognosis of differentiated thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have implicated autophagy in the pathogenesis of thyroid carcinoma. This investigation aimed to establish an autophagy-related gene model and nomogram that can help predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTHCA). METHODS: Clinical characteristics and RNA-seq expression data from TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas) were used in the study. We also downloaded autophagy-related genes (ARGs) from the Gene Set Enrichment Analysis website and the Human Autophagy Database. First, we assigned patients into training and testing groups. R software was applied to identify differentially expressed ARGs for further construction of a protein-protein interaction (PPI) network for gene functional analyses. A risk score-based prognostic risk model was subsequently developed using univariate Cox regression and LASSO-penalized Cox regression analyses. The model’s performance was verified using Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis and ROC curve. Finally, a nomogram was constructed for clinical application in evaluating the patients with DTHCA. Finally, a 7-gene prognostic risk model was developed based on gene set enrichment analysis. RESULTS: Overall, we identified 54 differentially expressed ARGs in patients with DTHCA. A new gene risk model based on 7-ARGs (CDKN2A, FGF7, CTSB, HAP1, DAPK2, DNAJB1, and ITPR1) was developed in the training group and validated in the testing group. The predictive accuracy of the model was reflected by the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that the model could independently predict the prognosis of patients with THCA. The constrained nomogram derived from the risk score and age also showed high prediction accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Here, we developed a 7-ARG prognostic risk model and nomogram for differentiated thyroid carcinoma patients that can guide clinical decisions and individualized therapy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12957-022-02590-6.