Modeling the Potential of Treg-Based Therapies for Transplant Rejection: Effect of Dose, Timing, and Accumulation Site

Introduction: The adoptive transfer of regulatory T cells (Tregs) has emerged as a method to promote graft tolerance. Clinical trials have demonstrated the safety of adoptive transfer and are now assessing their therapeutic efficacy. Strategies that generate large numbers of antigen specific Tregs are even more efficacious. However, the combinations of factors that influence the outcome of adoptive transfer are too numerous to be tested experimentally. Here, mathematical modeling is used to predict the most impactful treatment scenarios. Methods: We adapted our mathematical model of murine heart transplant rejection to simulate Treg adoptive transfer and to correlate therapeutic efficacy with Treg dose and timing, frequency of administration, and distribution of injected cells. Results: The model predicts that Tregs directly accumulating to the graft are more protective than Tregs localizing to draining lymph nodes. Inhibiting antigen-presenting cell maturation and effector functions at the graft site was more effective at modulating rejection than inhibition of T cell activation in lymphoid tissues. These complex dynamics define non-intuitive relationships between graft survival and timing and frequency of adoptive transfer. Conclusion: This work provides the framework for better understanding the impact of Treg adoptive transfer and will guide experimental design to improve interventions.