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Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam

Fisheries are forecasted to shrink in the tropics due to climate change. In Vietnam, fisheries are a pro-poor economic sector and essential nutrition source; however, welfares of producers and consumers in the climate change context are not well understood. While most studies focus on the gains or l...

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Autor principal: Nguyen, Thi Vinh Ha
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9038203/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35468138
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264997
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author Nguyen, Thi Vinh Ha
author_facet Nguyen, Thi Vinh Ha
author_sort Nguyen, Thi Vinh Ha
collection PubMed
description Fisheries are forecasted to shrink in the tropics due to climate change. In Vietnam, fisheries are a pro-poor economic sector and essential nutrition source; however, welfares of producers and consumers in the climate change context are not well understood. While most studies focus on the gains or losses of total products and revenues, this paper pays additional attention to the changes in surpluses of market players in the long run. A combination of the production function, demand and supply functions, and partial equilibrium analysis is employed to measure the production and welfare impacts based on time series data from 1976 to 2018 and a Vietnam household living standards survey in 2018. The results show that relative to the present, catch yield is likely to reduce 35%-45% by mid-century and 45%-80% by the end of the century. Consumers may lose their surplus of 7-9 billion USD (PPP, 2018) by 2035 and 10-18 billion USD by 2065 due to supply reduction, while producers may gain additional profit of 3.5-4.5 billion USD by 2035 and 5-9 billion USD by 2065 owing to a price increase. The research findings suggest that Vietnam could impose measures to limit capture effort, as set out in the Law of Fisheries 2017, without harming fisher welfare. The expansion of aquaculture could reduce the gap between supply and demand of wild fish to mitigate consumer welfare loss; however, this impact is still ambiguous.
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spelling pubmed-90382032022-04-26 Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam Nguyen, Thi Vinh Ha PLoS One Research Article Fisheries are forecasted to shrink in the tropics due to climate change. In Vietnam, fisheries are a pro-poor economic sector and essential nutrition source; however, welfares of producers and consumers in the climate change context are not well understood. While most studies focus on the gains or losses of total products and revenues, this paper pays additional attention to the changes in surpluses of market players in the long run. A combination of the production function, demand and supply functions, and partial equilibrium analysis is employed to measure the production and welfare impacts based on time series data from 1976 to 2018 and a Vietnam household living standards survey in 2018. The results show that relative to the present, catch yield is likely to reduce 35%-45% by mid-century and 45%-80% by the end of the century. Consumers may lose their surplus of 7-9 billion USD (PPP, 2018) by 2035 and 10-18 billion USD by 2065 due to supply reduction, while producers may gain additional profit of 3.5-4.5 billion USD by 2035 and 5-9 billion USD by 2065 owing to a price increase. The research findings suggest that Vietnam could impose measures to limit capture effort, as set out in the Law of Fisheries 2017, without harming fisher welfare. The expansion of aquaculture could reduce the gap between supply and demand of wild fish to mitigate consumer welfare loss; however, this impact is still ambiguous. Public Library of Science 2022-04-25 /pmc/articles/PMC9038203/ /pubmed/35468138 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264997 Text en © 2022 Thi Vinh Ha Nguyen https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Nguyen, Thi Vinh Ha
Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam
title Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam
title_full Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam
title_fullStr Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam
title_full_unstemmed Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam
title_short Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam
title_sort welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in vietnam
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9038203/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35468138
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264997
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