Cargando…

Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China*

SARS-CoV-2 infection causes most cases of severe illness and fatality in older age groups. Over 92% of the Chinese population aged ≥12 years has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (albeit with vaccines developed against historical lineages). At the end of October 2021, the vaccination programme...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Cai, Jun, Yang, Juan, Deng, Xiaowei, Peng, Cheng, Chen, Xinhua, Wu, Qianhui, Liu, Hengcong, Zhang, Juanjuan, Zheng, Wen, Zou, Junyi, Zhao, Zeyao, Ajelli, Marco, Yu, Hongjie
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Taylor & Francis 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9045766/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35380100
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/22221751.2022.2063073
_version_ 1784695385930858496
author Cai, Jun
Yang, Juan
Deng, Xiaowei
Peng, Cheng
Chen, Xinhua
Wu, Qianhui
Liu, Hengcong
Zhang, Juanjuan
Zheng, Wen
Zou, Junyi
Zhao, Zeyao
Ajelli, Marco
Yu, Hongjie
author_facet Cai, Jun
Yang, Juan
Deng, Xiaowei
Peng, Cheng
Chen, Xinhua
Wu, Qianhui
Liu, Hengcong
Zhang, Juanjuan
Zheng, Wen
Zou, Junyi
Zhao, Zeyao
Ajelli, Marco
Yu, Hongjie
author_sort Cai, Jun
collection PubMed
description SARS-CoV-2 infection causes most cases of severe illness and fatality in older age groups. Over 92% of the Chinese population aged ≥12 years has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (albeit with vaccines developed against historical lineages). At the end of October 2021, the vaccination programme has been extended to children aged 3–11 years. Here, we aim to assess whether, in this vaccination landscape, the importation of Delta variant infections could shift COVID-19 burden from adults to children. We developed an age-structured susceptible-infectious-removed model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to simulate epidemics triggered by the importation of Delta variant infections and project the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections, cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths. In the context of the vaccination programme targeting individuals aged ≥12 years, and in the absence of non-pharmaceutical interventions, the importation of Delta variant infections could have led to widespread transmission and substantial disease burden in mainland China, even with vaccination coverage as high as 89% across the eligible age groups. Extending the vaccination roll-out to include children aged 3–11 years (as it was the case since the end of October 2021) is estimated to dramatically decrease the burden of symptomatic infections and hospitalizations within this age group (39% and 68%, respectively, when considering a vaccination coverage of 87%), but would have a low impact on protecting infants. Our findings highlight the importance of including children among the target population and the need to strengthen vaccination efforts by increasing vaccine effectiveness.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9045766
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Taylor & Francis
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-90457662022-04-28 Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China* Cai, Jun Yang, Juan Deng, Xiaowei Peng, Cheng Chen, Xinhua Wu, Qianhui Liu, Hengcong Zhang, Juanjuan Zheng, Wen Zou, Junyi Zhao, Zeyao Ajelli, Marco Yu, Hongjie Emerg Microbes Infect Coronaviruses SARS-CoV-2 infection causes most cases of severe illness and fatality in older age groups. Over 92% of the Chinese population aged ≥12 years has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (albeit with vaccines developed against historical lineages). At the end of October 2021, the vaccination programme has been extended to children aged 3–11 years. Here, we aim to assess whether, in this vaccination landscape, the importation of Delta variant infections could shift COVID-19 burden from adults to children. We developed an age-structured susceptible-infectious-removed model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to simulate epidemics triggered by the importation of Delta variant infections and project the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections, cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths. In the context of the vaccination programme targeting individuals aged ≥12 years, and in the absence of non-pharmaceutical interventions, the importation of Delta variant infections could have led to widespread transmission and substantial disease burden in mainland China, even with vaccination coverage as high as 89% across the eligible age groups. Extending the vaccination roll-out to include children aged 3–11 years (as it was the case since the end of October 2021) is estimated to dramatically decrease the burden of symptomatic infections and hospitalizations within this age group (39% and 68%, respectively, when considering a vaccination coverage of 87%), but would have a low impact on protecting infants. Our findings highlight the importance of including children among the target population and the need to strengthen vaccination efforts by increasing vaccine effectiveness. Taylor & Francis 2022-04-25 /pmc/articles/PMC9045766/ /pubmed/35380100 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/22221751.2022.2063073 Text en © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) ), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Coronaviruses
Cai, Jun
Yang, Juan
Deng, Xiaowei
Peng, Cheng
Chen, Xinhua
Wu, Qianhui
Liu, Hengcong
Zhang, Juanjuan
Zheng, Wen
Zou, Junyi
Zhao, Zeyao
Ajelli, Marco
Yu, Hongjie
Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China*
title Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China*
title_full Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China*
title_fullStr Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China*
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China*
title_short Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China*
title_sort assessing the transition of covid-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in china*
topic Coronaviruses
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9045766/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35380100
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/22221751.2022.2063073
work_keys_str_mv AT caijun assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina
AT yangjuan assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina
AT dengxiaowei assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina
AT pengcheng assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina
AT chenxinhua assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina
AT wuqianhui assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina
AT liuhengcong assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina
AT zhangjuanjuan assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina
AT zhengwen assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina
AT zoujunyi assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina
AT zhaozeyao assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina
AT ajellimarco assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina
AT yuhongjie assessingthetransitionofcovid19burdentowardstheyoungpopulationwhilevaccinesarerolledoutinchina