Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges

Since late 2019, the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making. Here, we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission, summarized transmission dynamic...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Guan, Jinxing, Zhao, Yang, Wei, Yongyue, Shen, Sipeng, You, Dongfang, Zhang, Ruyang, Lange, Theis, Chen, Feng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: De Gruyter 2022
Materias:
Review
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9047651/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35658113
http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/mr-2021-0022
Descripción
Sumario:Since late 2019, the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making. Here, we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission, summarized transmission dynamics models into three main types: compartment extension, parameter extension and population-stratified extension models, highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic: estimating epidemiological parameters, predicting the future trend, evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios. Finally, we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models.

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