Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges

Since late 2019, the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making. Here, we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission, summarized transmission dynamic...

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Autores principales: Guan, Jinxing, Zhao, Yang, Wei, Yongyue, Shen, Sipeng, You, Dongfang, Zhang, Ruyang, Lange, Theis, Chen, Feng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: De Gruyter 2022
Materias:
Review
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9047651/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35658113
http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/mr-2021-0022
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author Guan, Jinxing
Zhao, Yang
Wei, Yongyue
Shen, Sipeng
You, Dongfang
Zhang, Ruyang
Lange, Theis
Chen, Feng
author_facet Guan, Jinxing
Zhao, Yang
Wei, Yongyue
Shen, Sipeng
You, Dongfang
Zhang, Ruyang
Lange, Theis
Chen, Feng
author_sort Guan, Jinxing
collection PubMed
description Since late 2019, the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making. Here, we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission, summarized transmission dynamics models into three main types: compartment extension, parameter extension and population-stratified extension models, highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic: estimating epidemiological parameters, predicting the future trend, evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios. Finally, we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models.
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spelling pubmed-90476512022-06-04 Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges Guan, Jinxing Zhao, Yang Wei, Yongyue Shen, Sipeng You, Dongfang Zhang, Ruyang Lange, Theis Chen, Feng Med Rev (Berl) Review Since late 2019, the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making. Here, we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission, summarized transmission dynamics models into three main types: compartment extension, parameter extension and population-stratified extension models, highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic: estimating epidemiological parameters, predicting the future trend, evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios. Finally, we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models. De Gruyter 2022-02-28 /pmc/articles/PMC9047651/ /pubmed/35658113 http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/mr-2021-0022 Text en © 2022 Jinxing Guan et al., published by De Gruyter, Berlin/Boston https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
spellingShingle Review
Guan, Jinxing
Zhao, Yang
Wei, Yongyue
Shen, Sipeng
You, Dongfang
Zhang, Ruyang
Lange, Theis
Chen, Feng
Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges
title Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges
title_full Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges
title_fullStr Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges
title_full_unstemmed Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges
title_short Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges
title_sort transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges
topic Review
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9047651/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35658113
http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/mr-2021-0022
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