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Nomogram for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure With Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) with persistent organ failure (POF) poses a high risk of death for mother and fetus. This study sought to create a nomogram model for early prediction of POF with APIP patients. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study on APIP patients with org...

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Autores principales: Sheng, Chengcheng, Xu, Zongxu, Wang, Jun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9048201/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35498429
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2022.863037
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author Sheng, Chengcheng
Xu, Zongxu
Wang, Jun
author_facet Sheng, Chengcheng
Xu, Zongxu
Wang, Jun
author_sort Sheng, Chengcheng
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) with persistent organ failure (POF) poses a high risk of death for mother and fetus. This study sought to create a nomogram model for early prediction of POF with APIP patients. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study on APIP patients with organ failure (OF) between January 2012 and March 2021. 131 patients were collected. Their clinical courses and pregnancy outcomes were obtained. Risk factors for POF were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Prediction models with POF were built and nomogram was plotted. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using a bootstrapped-concordance index and calibration plots. RESULTS: Hypertriglyceridemia was the most common etiology in this group of APIP patients, which accounted for 50% of transient organ failure (TOF) and 72.3% of POF. All in-hospital maternal death was in the POF group (P<0.05), which also had a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate than the TOF group (P<0.05). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis determined that lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were independent risk factors for predicting POF in APIP. A nomogram for POF was created by using the four indicators. The area under the curve was 0.875 (95%CI: 0.80–0.95). The nomogram had a bootstrapped-concordance index of 0.85 and was well-calibrated. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertriglyceridemia was the leading cause of organ failure-related APIP. Lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were the independent risk factors of POF in APIP. Our nomogram model showed an effective prediction of POF with the four indicators in APIP patients.
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spelling pubmed-90482012022-04-29 Nomogram for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure With Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy Sheng, Chengcheng Xu, Zongxu Wang, Jun Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) Endocrinology BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) with persistent organ failure (POF) poses a high risk of death for mother and fetus. This study sought to create a nomogram model for early prediction of POF with APIP patients. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study on APIP patients with organ failure (OF) between January 2012 and March 2021. 131 patients were collected. Their clinical courses and pregnancy outcomes were obtained. Risk factors for POF were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Prediction models with POF were built and nomogram was plotted. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using a bootstrapped-concordance index and calibration plots. RESULTS: Hypertriglyceridemia was the most common etiology in this group of APIP patients, which accounted for 50% of transient organ failure (TOF) and 72.3% of POF. All in-hospital maternal death was in the POF group (P<0.05), which also had a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate than the TOF group (P<0.05). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis determined that lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were independent risk factors for predicting POF in APIP. A nomogram for POF was created by using the four indicators. The area under the curve was 0.875 (95%CI: 0.80–0.95). The nomogram had a bootstrapped-concordance index of 0.85 and was well-calibrated. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertriglyceridemia was the leading cause of organ failure-related APIP. Lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were the independent risk factors of POF in APIP. Our nomogram model showed an effective prediction of POF with the four indicators in APIP patients. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-04-14 /pmc/articles/PMC9048201/ /pubmed/35498429 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2022.863037 Text en Copyright © 2022 Sheng, Xu and Wang https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Endocrinology
Sheng, Chengcheng
Xu, Zongxu
Wang, Jun
Nomogram for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure With Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy
title Nomogram for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure With Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy
title_full Nomogram for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure With Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy
title_fullStr Nomogram for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure With Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy
title_full_unstemmed Nomogram for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure With Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy
title_short Nomogram for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure With Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy
title_sort nomogram for predicting persistent organ failure with acute pancreatitis in pregnancy
topic Endocrinology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9048201/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35498429
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2022.863037
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