Durability of mRNA-1273 against COVID-19 in the time of Delta: Interim results from an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND: We conducted a prospective cohort study at Kaiser Permanente Southern California to study the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of mRNA-1273 over time and during the emergence of the Delta variant. METHODS: The cohort for this planned interim analysis consisted of individuals aged ≥18 years receiving 2 doses of mRNA-1273 through June 2021, matched 1:1 to randomly selected unvaccinated individuals by age, sex, and race/ethnicity, with follow-up through September 2021. Outcomes were SARS-CoV-2 infection, and COVID-19 hospitalization and hospital death. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing outcomes in the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Adjusted VE (%) was calculated as (1-aHR)x100. HRs and VEs were also estimated for SARS-CoV-2 infection by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and during the Delta period (June-September 2021). VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalization was estimated at 0-<2, 2-<4, 4-<6, and 6-<8 months post-vaccination. RESULTS: 927,004 recipients of 2 doses of mRNA-1273 were matched to 927,004 unvaccinated individuals. VE (95% CI) was 82.8% (82.2–83.3%) against SARS-CoV-2 infection, 96.1% (95.5–96.6%) against COVID-19 hospitalization, and 97.2% (94.8–98.4%) against COVID-19 hospital death. VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection was similar by age, sex, and race/ethnicity, and was 86.5% (84.8–88.0%) during the Delta period. VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased from 88.0% at 0-<2 months to 75.5% at 6-<8 months. CONCLUSIONS: These interim results provide continued evidence for protection of 2 doses of mRNA-1273 against SARS-CoV-2 infection over 8 months post-vaccination and during the Delta period, and against COVID-19 hospitalization and hospital death.