Simulation CT-based radiomics for prediction of response after neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer

BACKGROUND: To report on the discriminative ability of a simulation Computed Tomography (CT)-based radiomics signature for predicting response to treatment in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemo-radiation for locally advanced adenocarcinoma of the rectum. METHODS: Consecutive patients treated at the Universities of Tübingen (from 1/1/07 to 31/12/10, explorative cohort) and Florence (from 1/1/11 to 31/12/17, external validation cohort) were considered in our dual-institution, retrospective analysis. Long-course neoadjuvant chemo-radiation was performed according to local policy. On simulation CT, the rectal Gross Tumor Volume was manually segmented. A feature selection process was performed yielding mineable data through an in-house developed software (written in Python 3.6). Model selection and hyper-parametrization of the model was performed using a fivefold cross validation approach. The main outcome measure of the study was the rate of pathologic good response, defined as the sum of Tumor regression grade (TRG) 3 and 4 according to Dworak’s classification. RESULTS: Two-hundred and one patients were included in our analysis, of whom 126 (62.7%) and 75 (37.3%) cases represented the explorative and external validation cohorts, respectively. Patient characteristics were well balanced between the two groups. A similar rate of good response to neoadjuvant treatment was obtained in in both cohorts (46% and 54.7%, respectively; p = 0.247). A total of 1150 features were extracted from the planning scans. A 5-metafeature complex consisting of Principal component analysis (PCA)-clusters (whose main components are LHL Grey-Level-Size-Zone: Large Zone Emphasis, Elongation, HHH Intensity Histogram Mean, HLL Run-Length: Run Level Variance and HHH Co-occurence: Cluster Tendency) in combination with 5-nearest neighbour model was the most robust signature. When applied to the explorative cohort, the prediction of good response corresponded to an average Area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.65 ± 0.02. When the model was tested on the external validation cohort, it ensured a similar accuracy, with a slightly lower predictive ability (AUC of 0.63). CONCLUSIONS: Radiomics-based, data-mining from simulation CT scans was shown to be feasible and reproducible in two independent cohorts, yielding fair accuracy in the prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemo-radiation. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13014-022-02053-y.