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Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change

BACKGROUND: Rigorous assessment of the effect of malaria control strategies on local malaria dynamics is a complex but vital step in informing future strategies to eliminate malaria. However, the interactions between climate forcing, mass drug administration, mosquito control and their effects on th...

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Autores principales: Tian, Huaiyu, Li, Naizhe, Li, Yapin, Kraemer, Moritz U. G., Tan, Hua, Liu, Yonghong, Li, Yidan, Wang, Ben, Wu, Peiyi, Cazelles, Bernard, Lourenço, José, Gao, Dongqi, Sun, Dingwei, Song, Wenjing, Li, Yuchun, Pybus, Oliver G., Wang, Guangze, Dye, Christopher
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9053252/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35603266
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00073-z
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author Tian, Huaiyu
Li, Naizhe
Li, Yapin
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Tan, Hua
Liu, Yonghong
Li, Yidan
Wang, Ben
Wu, Peiyi
Cazelles, Bernard
Lourenço, José
Gao, Dongqi
Sun, Dingwei
Song, Wenjing
Li, Yuchun
Pybus, Oliver G.
Wang, Guangze
Dye, Christopher
author_facet Tian, Huaiyu
Li, Naizhe
Li, Yapin
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Tan, Hua
Liu, Yonghong
Li, Yidan
Wang, Ben
Wu, Peiyi
Cazelles, Bernard
Lourenço, José
Gao, Dongqi
Sun, Dingwei
Song, Wenjing
Li, Yuchun
Pybus, Oliver G.
Wang, Guangze
Dye, Christopher
author_sort Tian, Huaiyu
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Rigorous assessment of the effect of malaria control strategies on local malaria dynamics is a complex but vital step in informing future strategies to eliminate malaria. However, the interactions between climate forcing, mass drug administration, mosquito control and their effects on the incidence of malaria remain unclear. METHODS: Here, we analyze the effects of interventions on the transmission dynamics of malaria (Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum) on Hainan Island, China, controlling for environmental factors. Mathematical models were fitted to epidemiological data, including confirmed cases and population-wide blood examinations, collected between 1995 and 2010, a period when malaria control interventions were rolled out with positive outcomes. RESULTS: Prior to the massive scale-up of interventions, malaria incidence shows both interannual variability and seasonality, as well as a strong correlation with climatic patterns linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Based on our mechanistic model, we find that the reduction in malaria is likely due to the large scale rollout of insecticide-treated bed nets, which reduce the infections of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria by 93.4% and 35.5%, respectively. Mass drug administration has a greater contribution in the control of P. falciparum (54.9%) than P. vivax (5.3%). In a comparison of interventions, indoor residual spraying makes a relatively minor contribution to malaria control (1.3%–9.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Although malaria transmission on Hainan Island has been exacerbated by El Nino Southern Oscillation, control methods have eliminated both P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria from this part of China.
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spelling pubmed-90532522022-05-20 Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change Tian, Huaiyu Li, Naizhe Li, Yapin Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Tan, Hua Liu, Yonghong Li, Yidan Wang, Ben Wu, Peiyi Cazelles, Bernard Lourenço, José Gao, Dongqi Sun, Dingwei Song, Wenjing Li, Yuchun Pybus, Oliver G. Wang, Guangze Dye, Christopher Commun Med (Lond) Article BACKGROUND: Rigorous assessment of the effect of malaria control strategies on local malaria dynamics is a complex but vital step in informing future strategies to eliminate malaria. However, the interactions between climate forcing, mass drug administration, mosquito control and their effects on the incidence of malaria remain unclear. METHODS: Here, we analyze the effects of interventions on the transmission dynamics of malaria (Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum) on Hainan Island, China, controlling for environmental factors. Mathematical models were fitted to epidemiological data, including confirmed cases and population-wide blood examinations, collected between 1995 and 2010, a period when malaria control interventions were rolled out with positive outcomes. RESULTS: Prior to the massive scale-up of interventions, malaria incidence shows both interannual variability and seasonality, as well as a strong correlation with climatic patterns linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Based on our mechanistic model, we find that the reduction in malaria is likely due to the large scale rollout of insecticide-treated bed nets, which reduce the infections of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria by 93.4% and 35.5%, respectively. Mass drug administration has a greater contribution in the control of P. falciparum (54.9%) than P. vivax (5.3%). In a comparison of interventions, indoor residual spraying makes a relatively minor contribution to malaria control (1.3%–9.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Although malaria transmission on Hainan Island has been exacerbated by El Nino Southern Oscillation, control methods have eliminated both P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria from this part of China. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-02-09 /pmc/articles/PMC9053252/ /pubmed/35603266 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00073-z Text en © The Author(s) 2022, corrected publication 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Tian, Huaiyu
Li, Naizhe
Li, Yapin
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Tan, Hua
Liu, Yonghong
Li, Yidan
Wang, Ben
Wu, Peiyi
Cazelles, Bernard
Lourenço, José
Gao, Dongqi
Sun, Dingwei
Song, Wenjing
Li, Yuchun
Pybus, Oliver G.
Wang, Guangze
Dye, Christopher
Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change
title Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change
title_full Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change
title_fullStr Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change
title_full_unstemmed Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change
title_short Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change
title_sort malaria elimination on hainan island despite climate change
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9053252/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35603266
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00073-z
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