Prognostic utility of magnetic resonance elastography and MEFIB index in predicting liver-related outcomes and mortality in individuals at risk of and with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND: Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is an accurate biomarker of liver fibrosis; however, limited data characterize its association with outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the association between liver stiffness (LS) on MRE and liver-related outcomes. METHODS: This is a longitudinal, retrospective analysis of subjects at risk of NAFLD who had MRE assessment. LS was estimated using MRE, and liver fat was assessed using magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction. Univariable and multivariable survival and regression analyses were used to assess the association between LS on MRE and liver-related outcomes including a cumulative primary outcome of hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), or death. RESULTS: In all, 265 patients (68% women) with a mean age of 50 (±18) years and 44% Hispanic ethnicity and 45.3% with NAFLD were included. A total of 76 liver-related events or death occurred, and there was 453 person-years of follow-up time in 97 patients with available follow-up. Each 1-kPa increase in LS was associated with 2.20-fold (95% CI: 1.70–2.84, p < 0.001) increased odds of prevalent hepatic decompensation or HCC. A positive MEFIB index, a combination of MRE ⩾ 3.3 kPa and FIB-4 ⩾ 1.6, had a strong association with the primary outcome compared with those without, HR = 21.8 (95% CI: 4.28–111.4, p < 0.001). The MEFIB index had a sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 90%, and a negative score was associated with 98% negative predictive value for incident liver-related events or death. CONCLUSION: LS assessed by MRE is associated with hepatic decompensation and death, and the MEFIB combination of MRE with FIB-4 may have high negative predictive value for liver-related events.