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A multi-strain epidemic model for COVID-19 with infected and asymptomatic cases: Application to French data

Many SARS-CoV-2 variants have appeared over the last months, and many more will continue to appear. Understanding the competition between these different variants could help make future predictions on the evolution of epidemics. In this study we use a mathematical model to investigate the impact of...

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Autores principales: Massard, Mathilde, Eftimie, Raluca, Perasso, Antoine, Saussereau, Bruno
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9059428/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35513167
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111117
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author Massard, Mathilde
Eftimie, Raluca
Perasso, Antoine
Saussereau, Bruno
author_facet Massard, Mathilde
Eftimie, Raluca
Perasso, Antoine
Saussereau, Bruno
author_sort Massard, Mathilde
collection PubMed
description Many SARS-CoV-2 variants have appeared over the last months, and many more will continue to appear. Understanding the competition between these different variants could help make future predictions on the evolution of epidemics. In this study we use a mathematical model to investigate the impact of three different SARS-CoV-2 variants on the spread of COVID-19 across France, between January-May 2021 (before vaccination was extended to the full population). To this end, we use the data from Geodes (produced by Public Health France) and a particle swarm optimisation algorithm, to estimate the model parameters and further calculate a value for the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is then used to better understand the impact of estimated parameter values on the number of infections leading to both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. The results confirmed that, as expected, the alpha, beta and gamma variants are more transmissible than the original viral strain. In addition, the sensitivity results showed that the beta/gamma variants could have lead to a larger number of infections in France (of both symptomatic and asymptomatic people).
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spelling pubmed-90594282022-05-02 A multi-strain epidemic model for COVID-19 with infected and asymptomatic cases: Application to French data Massard, Mathilde Eftimie, Raluca Perasso, Antoine Saussereau, Bruno J Theor Biol Article Many SARS-CoV-2 variants have appeared over the last months, and many more will continue to appear. Understanding the competition between these different variants could help make future predictions on the evolution of epidemics. In this study we use a mathematical model to investigate the impact of three different SARS-CoV-2 variants on the spread of COVID-19 across France, between January-May 2021 (before vaccination was extended to the full population). To this end, we use the data from Geodes (produced by Public Health France) and a particle swarm optimisation algorithm, to estimate the model parameters and further calculate a value for the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is then used to better understand the impact of estimated parameter values on the number of infections leading to both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. The results confirmed that, as expected, the alpha, beta and gamma variants are more transmissible than the original viral strain. In addition, the sensitivity results showed that the beta/gamma variants could have lead to a larger number of infections in France (of both symptomatic and asymptomatic people). Elsevier Ltd. 2022-07-21 2022-05-02 /pmc/articles/PMC9059428/ /pubmed/35513167 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111117 Text en © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Massard, Mathilde
Eftimie, Raluca
Perasso, Antoine
Saussereau, Bruno
A multi-strain epidemic model for COVID-19 with infected and asymptomatic cases: Application to French data
title A multi-strain epidemic model for COVID-19 with infected and asymptomatic cases: Application to French data
title_full A multi-strain epidemic model for COVID-19 with infected and asymptomatic cases: Application to French data
title_fullStr A multi-strain epidemic model for COVID-19 with infected and asymptomatic cases: Application to French data
title_full_unstemmed A multi-strain epidemic model for COVID-19 with infected and asymptomatic cases: Application to French data
title_short A multi-strain epidemic model for COVID-19 with infected and asymptomatic cases: Application to French data
title_sort multi-strain epidemic model for covid-19 with infected and asymptomatic cases: application to french data
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9059428/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35513167
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111117
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