Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score in the ICU As a Predictor of Long-Term Survival After Cardiac Surgery

OBJECTIVES: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is a predictor of mortality in ICU patients. Although it is widely used and has been validated as a reliable and independent predictor of mortality and morbidity in cardiac ICU, few studies correlate early postoperative SOFA with long-term survival. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Tertiary academic cardiac surgery ICU. PATIENTS: One-thousand three-hundred seventy-nine patients submitted to cardiac surgery. INTERVENTIONS: SOFA 24 hours, SOFA 48 hours, mean, and highest SOFA scores were correlated with survival at 12 and 24 months. Wilcoxon tests were used to analyze differences in variables. Multivariate logistic regressions and likelihood ratio test were used to access the predictive modeling. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess accuracy of the variables in separating survivor from nonsurvivors. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Lower SOFA scores have better survival rates at 12 and 24 months. Highest SOFA and SOFA at 48 hours showed to be better predictors of outcome and to have higher accuracy in distinguishing survivors from nonsurvivors than initial SOFA and mean SOFA. A decreasing score during the first 48 hours had mortality rates of 4.9%, while an unchanged or increased score was associated with a mortality rate of 5.7%. CONCLUSIONS: SOFA score in the ICU after cardiac surgery correlated with survival at 12 and 24 months. Patients with lower SOFA scores had higher survival rates. Differences in survival at 12 months were better correlated with the absolute value at 48 hours than with its variation. SOFA score may be useful to predict long-term outcomes and to stratify patients with higher probability of mortality.