What are the short-term annual cost savings associated with kidney transplantation?

BACKGROUND: Kidney transplantation (KT) is often reported in the literature as associated with cost savings. However, existing studies differ in their choice of comparator, follow-up period, and the study perspective. Also, there may be unobservable heterogeneity in health care costs in the patient population which may divide the population into groups with differences in cost distributions. This study estimates the cost savings associated with KT from a payer perspective and identifies and characterizes both high and low patient cost groups. METHOD: The current study was a population-based retrospective before-and-after study. The timespan involved at most three years before and after KT. The sample included end-stage kidney disease patients in Nova Scotia, a province in Canada, who had a single KT between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2018. Each patient served as their control. The primary outcome measure was total annual health care costs. We estimated cost savings using unadjusted and adjusted models, stratifying the analyses by donor type. We quantified the uncertainty around the estimates using non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping. We also used finite mixture models to identify data-driven cost groups based on patients’ pre-transplantation annual inpatient costs. RESULTS: The mean annual cost savings per patient associated with KT was $19,589 (95% CI: $14,013, $23,397). KT was associated with a 24–29% decrease in mean annual health care costs per patient compared with the annual costs before KT. We identified and characterized patients in three cost groups made of 2.9% in low-cost (LC), 51.8% in medium-cost (MC) and 45.3% in high-cost (HC). Cost group membership did not change after KT. Comparing costs in each group before and after KT, we found that KT was associated with 17% mean annual cost reductions for the LC group, 24% for the MC group and 26% for the HC group. The HC group included patients more likely to have a higher comorbidity burden (Charlson comorbidity index ≥ 3). CONCLUSIONS: KT was associated with reductions in annual health care costs in the short term, even after accounting for costs incurred during KT. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12962-022-00355-2.