Predictive value of clinical and (18)F-FDG-PET/CT derived imaging parameters in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Aim of this study was to validate the prognostic impact of clinical parameters and baseline (18)F-FDG-PET/CT derived textural features to predict histopathologic response and survival in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRT) and surgery. Between 2005 and 2014, 38 ESCC were treated with nCRT and surgery. For all patients, the (18)F-FDG-PET-derived parameters metabolic tumor volume (MTV), SUVmax, contrast and busyness were calculated for the primary tumor using a SUV-threshold of 3. The parameter uniformity was calculated using contrast-enhanced computed tomography. Based on histopathological response to nCRT, patients were classified as good responders (< 10% residual tumor) (R) or non-responders (≥ 10% residual tumor) (NR). Regression analyses were used to analyse the association of clinical parameters and imaging parameters with treatment response and overall survival (OS). Good response to nCRT was seen in 27 patients (71.1%) and non-response was seen in 11 patients (28.9%). Grading was the only parameter predicting response to nCRT (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.188, 95% CI: 0.040–0.883; p = 0.034). No association with histopathologic treatment response was seen for any of the evaluated imaging parameters including SUVmax, MTV, busyness, contrast and uniformity. Using multivariate Cox-regression analysis, the heterogeneity parameters busyness (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 1.424, 95% CI: 1.044–1.943; p = 0.026) and contrast (HR = 6.678, 95% CI: 1.969–22.643; p = 0.002) were independently associated with OS, while no independent association with OS was seen for SUVmax and MTV. In patients with ESCC undergoing nCRT and surgery, baseline (18)F-FDG-PET/CT derived parameters could not predict histopathologic response to nCRT. However, the PET/CT derived features busyness and contrast were independently associated with OS and should be further investigated.