A Data-Driven Approach to Predicting 5-Aminolevulinic Acid–Induced Fluorescence and World Health Organization Grade in Newly Diagnosed Diffuse Gliomas

A growing body of evidence has revealed the potential utility of 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA) as a surgical adjunct in selected lower-grade gliomas. However, a reliable means of identifying which lower-grade gliomas will fluoresce has not been established. OBJECTIVE: To identify clinical and radiological factors predictive of intraoperative fluorescence in intermediate-grade gliomas. In addition, given that higher-grade gliomas are more likely to fluoresce than lower-grade gliomas, we also sought to develop a means of predicting glioma grade. METHODS: We investigated a cohort of patients with grade II and grade III gliomas who received 5-ALA before resection at a single institution. Using a logistic regression-based model, we evaluated 14 clinical and molecular variables considered plausible determinants of fluorescence. We then distilled the most predictive features to develop a model for predicting both fluorescence and tumor grade. We also explored the relationship between intraoperative fluorescence and diagnostic molecular markers. RESULTS: One hundered seventy-nine subjects were eligible for inclusion. Our logistic regression classifier accurately predicted intraoperative fluorescence in our cohort with 91.9% accuracy and revealed enhancement as the singular variable in determining intraoperative fluorescence. There was a direct relationship between enhancement on MRI and the likelihood of observed fluorescence. Observed fluorescence correlated with MIB-1 index but not with isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) status, 1p19q codeletion, or methylguanine DNA methyltransferase promoter methylation. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate a strong correlation between enhancement on preoperative MRI and the likelihood of visible fluorescence during surgery in patients with intermediate-grade glioma. Our analysis provides a robust method for predicting 5-ALA–induced fluorescence in patients with grade II and grade III gliomas.