Estimating heterogeneity of physical function treatment response to caloric restriction among older adults with obesity

Clinical trials conventionally test aggregate mean differences and assume homogeneous variances across treatment groups. However, significant response heterogeneity may exist. The purpose of this study was to model treatment response variability using gait speed change among older adults participating in caloric restriction (CR) trials. Eight randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with five- or six-month assessments were pooled, including 749 participants randomized to CR and 594 participants randomized to non-CR (NoCR). Statistical models compared means and variances by CR assignment and exercise assignment or select subgroups, testing for treatment differences and interactions for mean changes and standard deviations. Continuous equivalents of dichotomized variables were also fit. Models used a Bayesian framework, and posterior estimates were presented as means and 95% Bayesian credible intervals (BCI). At baseline, participants were 67.7 (SD = 5.4) years, 69.8% female, and 79.2% white, with a BMI of 33.9 (4.4) kg/m(2). CR participants reduced body mass [CR: -7.7 (5.8) kg vs. NoCR: -0.9 (3.5) kg] and increased gait speed [CR: +0.10 (0.16) m/s vs. NoCR: +0.07 (0.15) m/s] more than NoCR participants. There were no treatment differences in gait speed change standard deviations [CR–NoCR: -0.002 m/s (95% BCI: -0.013, 0.009)]. Significant mean interactions between CR and exercise assignment [0.037 m/s (95% BCI: 0.004, 0.070)], BMI [0.034 m/s (95% BCI: 0.003, 0.066)], and IL-6 [0.041 m/s (95% BCI: 0.009, 0.073)] were observed, while variance interactions were observed between CR and exercise assignment [-0.458 m/s (95% BCI: -0.783, -0.138)], age [-0.557 m/s (95% BCI: -0.900, -0.221)], and gait speed [-0.530 m/s (95% BCI: -1.018, -0.062)] subgroups. Caloric restriction plus exercise yielded the greatest gait speed benefit among older adults with obesity. High BMI and IL-6 subgroups also improved gait speed in response to CR. Results provide a novel statistical framework for identifying treatment heterogeneity in RCTs.