Comparison of clinical scores for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH): potential tools for personalized care and clinical trials for ICH

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to systematically compare the discrimination and calibration of 5 clinical scores for stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: We derived a validation cohort from the Beijing Registration of Intracerebral Hemorrhage. SAP was then diagnosed according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s criteria for hospital-acquired pneumonia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: A total of 1964 patients were enrolled in the study. The mean age was 56.8±14.4 years, and 67.6% were male. The median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at admission was 11 [interquartile range (IQR), 3–21], while the median length of stay (LOS) was 16 days (IQR, 8–22 days). A total of 575 (29.2%) patients were diagnosed with in-hospital SAP after ICH. The AUROC of the 5 clinical scores ranged from 0.732 to 0.800. In comparing these scores, we found that the ICH-associated pneumonia score-B (ICH-APS-B 0.800; 95% CI: 0.780–0.820; P<0.001) showed a statistically better discrimination than did the other risk models (all P<0.001). Furthermore, all clinical scores performed better in patients with an LOS >72 h. The ICH-APS-B (0.827; 95% CI: 0.806–0.848; P<0.001) still showed statistically better discrimination than did the other risk models in patients with an LOS longer than 72 hours. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test also revealed that the ICH-APS-B. had the largest Cox and Snell R2 result for in-hospital SAP after ICH. CONCLUSIONS: Among the 5 models for predicting SAP after ICH, the ICH-APS-B showed the best predictive performance, suggests it may be a useful tool for implementing the personalized care of patients and conducting clinical trials of SAP after ICH.