The determinants of China’s outward foreign direct investment: a vector error correction model analysis of coastal and landlocked countries

An essential objective of China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) is to expand international trade and access to overseas markets to garner resources and improve transportation routes. This study identifies the determinants of China’s OFDI activities in the short and long term, focusing on 138 countries that are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is the first study to evaluate the system’s contribution of location determinants, including the four factors of economy, logistics, energy, and politics, to China’s OFDI by employing a vector error correction model with panel data from 2007 to 2019. In addition, we compare the influence of the variables in coastal and landlocked countries. Panel Granger causality and impulse response tests, variance decomposition, and forecast analysis were conducted to analyze and forecast China’ OFDI. The results show that China’s OFDI in both coastal and landlocked countries is statistically sensitive to the variables of economy, energy, logistics, and politics in host countries engaged in the BRI. It also shows that improving logistics infrastructure and the political investment environment in landlocked countries, this can positively attract China’s OFDI. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10644-022-09407-2.