Combination of serological biomarkers and clinical features to predict mucosal healing in Crohn’s disease: a multicenter cohort study

PURPOSE: Mucosal healing (MH) has become the treatment goal of patients with Crohn’s disease (CD). This study aims to develop a noninvasive and reliable clinical tool for individual evaluation of mucosal healing in patients with Crohn’s disease. METHODS: A multicenter retrospective cohort was established. Clinical and serological variables were collected. Separate risk factors were incorporated into a binary logistic regression model. A primary model and a simple model were established, respectively. The model performance was evaluated with C-index, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy. Internal validation was performed in patients with small intestinal lesions. RESULTS: A total of 348 consecutive patients diagnosed with CD who underwent endoscopic examination and review after treatment from January 2010 to June 2021 were composed in the derivation cohort, and 112 patients with small intestinal lesions were included in the validation cohort. The following variables were independently associated with the MH and were subsequently included into the primary prediction model: PLR (platelet to lymphocyte ratio), CAR (C-reactive protein to albumin ratio), ESR (erythrocyte sedimentation rate), HBI (Harvey-Bradshaw Index) score and infliximab treatment. The simple model only included factors of PLR, CAR and ESR. The primary model performed better than the simple one in C-index (87.5% vs. 83.0%, p = 0.004). There was no statistical significance between these two models in sensitivity (70.43% vs. 62.61%, p = 0.467), specificity (87.12% vs. 80.69%, p = 0.448), PPV (72.97% vs. 61.54%, p = 0.292), NPV (85.65% vs. 81.39%, p = 0.614), and accuracy (81.61% vs. 74.71%, p = 0.303). The primary model had good calibration and high levels of explained variation and discrimination in validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: This model can be used to predict MH in post-treatment patients with CD. It can also be used as an indication of endoscopic surveillance to evaluate mucosal healing in patients with CD after treatment. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02304-y.