Projecting the Suicide Burden of Climate Change in the United States

We quantify and monetize changes in suicide incidence across the conterminous United States (U.S.) in response to increasing levels of warming. We develop an integrated health impact assessment model using binned and linear specifications of temperature‐suicide relationship estimates from Mullins and White (2019), in combination with monthly age‐ and sex‐specific baseline suicide incidence rates, projections of six climate models, and population projections at the conterminous U.S. county scale. We evaluate the difference in the annual number of suicides in the U.S. corresponding to 1–6°C of warming compared to 1986–2005 average temperatures (mean U.S. temperatures) and compute 2015 population attributable fractions (PAFs). We use the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Value of a Statistical Life to estimate the economic value of avoiding these mortality impacts. Assuming the 2015 population size, warming of 1–6°C could result in an annual increase of 283–1,660 additional suicide cases, corresponding to a PAF of 0.7%–4.1%. The annual economic value of avoiding these impacts is $2 billion–$3 billion (2015 U.S. dollars, 3% discount rate, and 2015 income level). Estimates based on linear temperature‐suicide relationship specifications are 7% larger than those based on binned temperature specifications. Accounting for displacement decreases estimates by 17%, while accounting for precipitation decreases estimates by 7%. Population growth between 2015 and the future warming degree arrival year increases estimates by 15%–38%. Further research is needed to quantify and monetize other climate‐related mental health outcomes (e.g., anxiety and depression) and to characterize these risks in socially vulnerable populations.