Examining longitudinal disparities in COVID-19 prevalence in the U.S.: a county level growth rate perspective

Background: The objectives of the present study are to understand the longitudinal variability in COVID-19 reported cases at the county level and to associate the observed rates of infection with the adoption and lifting of stay-home orders. Materials and Methods: The study uses the trajectory of the pandemic in a county and controls for social and economic risk factors, physical environment, and health behaviors to elucidate the social determinants contributing to the observed rates of infection. Results and conclusion: KEY MESSAGES: Observed rates of COVID-19 infection at the County level in the U.S. are not directly associated with adoption and lifting of stay-home orders. Disadvantages in sociodemographic determinants negatively influence the rate of COVID-19 spread. Counties with more young individuals, racial and ethnic minorities, and higher population densities have greater difficulty suppressing transmission.