Assessing influences of climate change on highland barley productivity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1978–2017

Grain production is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change globally. Highland barley (HB) is the most important cereal crop in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), so assessing HB productivity and its response to climate change could help to understand the capacity of grain production and food security. This study simulated the potential yield of HB annually at 72 meteorological stations for 1978–2017 using the WOFOST model, and then analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of HB potential yield and climatic factors in the growing season. Further, the influence of climate change on HB potential yield was explored in different temperature zones (TZ). Results indicate that the annual average of HB potential yield ranged from 3.5 to 8.1 t/ha in the QTP, and it was averaged at 6.5 t/ha in TZ-3, higher than other zones. From 1978 to 2017, HB potential yield for the whole QTP decreased slightly by 2.1 kg/ha per year, and its change rates were 23.9, 10.1, − 15.9, − 23.8 and − 16.7 kg/ha/year from TZ-1 to TZ-5 (p < 0.05), respectively. In all zones, average (Tave), maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) showed a significantly warming trend (p < 0.01), and Tmin increased by 0.53, 0.45, 0.44, 0.40 and 0.69 °C per decade, higher than that of Tave and Tmax. However, temperature diurnal range (TDR) and radiation (RA) showed a downward trend, and their decrease rates were far higher in TZ-5 and TZ-3. In TZ-1, ΔTDR was the critical factor to the change in HB potential yield, which would increase by 420.30 kg/ha for 1 °C increase of ΔTDR (p < 0.01). From TZ-2 to TZ-5, ΔRA was the critical factor, but the influence amplitude in terms of the elastic coefficient, decreased from 4.08 to 0.99 (p < 0.01). In addition, other factors such as ΔTmax in TZ-3 and ΔTmin in TZ-4 and TZ-5 also had an important influence on the potential yield. To improve the HB productivity in the QTP, suitable varieties should be developed and introduced to adapt the climate warming in different temperature zones. In addition, efforts are needed to adjust the strategies of fertilizers and irrigation applications.