Multivariate analysis of independent roles of socioeconomic status, occupational physical activity, reproductive factors, and postmenopausal hormonal therapy in risk of breast cancer

PURPOSE: This case–control study assesses the independent roles of reproductive history, postmenopausal hormonal therapy (HT), socioeconomic status (SES), and occupational physical activity on the risk of breast cancer (BC). METHODS: Odds ratios (OR) were estimated from conditional logistic multivariate regression model in a data set of 19,253 Finnish women diagnosed with BC between 1994 and 2013 and 96,265 age-matched population controls. RESULTS: Both pre- and postmenopausal white-collar workers had significantly increased risk of ductal and lobular BC as compared to manual workers. Moderate occupational physical activity reduced risk of lobular BC by 14%. There was a transient increase in the risk of BC observed after each birth followed by a protective effect starting some years after the delivery. As the number of children increased, the short-term excess risk was lower and protective effect was observed earlier. Continuous estrogen-progestin therapy (EPT) significantly increased the risk of both ductal and lobular BC and the magnitude of risk was directly proportional to duration of use (OR for 5+ years of use 2.26, 95% confidence interval 2.12–2.42). Monthly EPT for 5+ years increased the risk (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.20–1.45). Users of estradiol plus levonorgestrel intrauterine system devices showed ORs of 1.56 (95% CI 1.45–1.69) and 2.18 (95% CI 1.81–2.64) for ductal and lobular BC, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study concludes that pregnancy has a dual effect on BC risk, with a transient increase in risk followed by a long-term protective effect. The SES and HT have a large effect on BC risk while occupational physical activity has only a small independent effect. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10549-022-06571-x.