Atoll inland and coastal mangrove climate change vulnerability assessment

Climate change threatens global mangroves, which are already among the world’s most impacted ecosystems. Vulnerability components of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were evaluated on mangroves of atoll settings on Jaluit Atoll, in the Marshall Islands, assessing spatial changes of mangrove cover 1945–2018/19, sea-level trends 1968–2019, and reviewing available information. Inland mangrove depressions occur on Jaluit, as well as coastal lagoon margin mangroves, and both were assessed using the same methods. Spatial analysis results showed both inland and coastal mangroves have increased in area. Inland mangroves on eight of Jaluit’s islands mostly expanded after 1976 from 40 to 50 hectares, with progradation and tidal creek infill closing lagoon connections. Shoreline mangroves showed 88–100% of transects prograding 0.1–0.51 m year(−1) and 0–11.5% of transects eroding 0–0.18 m year(−1). Assessment of a combination of aerial/satellite images, literature and on-the-ground photos indicated that the mangroves are in healthy condition. Vulnerability assessment results showed both inland and coastal mangroves to have similar strengths and weaknesses in resilience, with intrinsic areas of vulnerability persisting during increased future sea level rise, limited sediment supply and extremely low elevations. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11273-022-09878-0.