Is waist-to-height ratio the best predictive indicator of cardiovascular disease incidence in hypertensive adults? A cohort study

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) brings high mortality and economic burden to patients, especially in rural areas. Simple, low-cost abdominal adiposity measures may help identify individuals with increased CVD risk. It is unclear that which obesity indices is the best to predict CVD in hypertensive people. METHODS: Northeast China Rural Cardiovascular Health Study (NCRCHS) is a prospective cohort study in a general population in Northeast China. The study examined the cardiovascular health from 2013 to 2015, and follow-up captured the CVD incidence in 2018. Baseline waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip (WHR)and body mass index (BMI) were calculated and analyzed in relation to the CVD incidence. RESULTS: A total of 4244 hypertensive adults without pre-existing CVD at baseline were included in this analysis (age 35–92 years; 2108 men). Over a median follow-up of 4.66 years, a total of 290 CVD cases (6.83%) were documented during the follow-up. Baseline WHtR showed a significant positive association with CVD incidence, even after adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, drinking, smoking, SBP, DBP, Triglyceride, HDL-C, LDL-C, and TC (Hazard Ratios per SD of WHtR ranging from 1.03 to 1.31, p = 0.017). Reclassification and discrimination analyses indicated WHtR addition could improve the conventional model for predicting adverse outcomes within 4 years. Moreover, WHtR predicted the CVD incidence better than other obesity indices (BMI, WC, WHR). CONCLUSION: These findings support a positive association between WHtR and CVD incidence in CVD-free hypertensive adults. WHtR can be used to predict CVD incidence in hypertensive adults. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-022-02646-1.