Malignant Progression of Diffuse Low-grade Gliomas: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis on Incidence and Related Factors

Malignant progression of diffuse low-grade glioma (LGG) is a critical event affecting patient survival; however, the incidence and related factors have been inconsistent in literature. According to the PRISMA guidelines, we systematically reviewed articles from 2009, meta-analyzed the incidence of malignant progression, and clarified factors related to the transformation. Forty-one articles were included in this study (n = 7,122; n, number of patients). We identified two definitions of malignant progression: histologically proven (Htrans) and clinically defined (Ctrans). The malignant progression rate curves of Htrans and Ctrans were almost in parallel when constructed from the results of meta-regression by the mean follow-up time. The true transformation rate was supposed to lie between the two curves, approximately 40% at the 10-year mean follow-up. Risk of malignant progression was evaluated using hazard ratio (HR). Pooled HRs were significantly higher in tumors with a larger pre- and postoperative tumor volume, lower degree of resection, and notable preoperative contrast enhancement on magnetic resonance imaging than in others. Oligodendroglial histology and IDH mutation (IDHm) with 1p/19q codeletion (Codel) also significantly reduced the HRs. Using Kaplan-Meier curves from eight studies with molecular data, we extracted data and calculated the 10-year malignant progression-free survival (10yMPFS). The 10yMPFS in patients with IDHm without Codel was 30.4% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 22.2-39.0) in Htrans and 38.3% (95% CI: 32.3-44.3) in Ctrans, and that with IDHm with Codel was 71.7% (95% CI: 61.7-79.5) in Htrans and 62.5% (95% CI: 55.9-68.5) in Ctrans. The effect of adjuvant radiotherapy or chemotherapy could not be determined.