Cargando…

How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?

COVID-19 has shown that quarantine (or self-isolation) may be the only available tool against an unknown infectious disease if neither an effective vaccine nor anti-viral medication is available. Motivated by the fact that a considerable number of people were not compliant with the request for self-...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Utsumi, Shinobu, Arefin, Md. Rajib, Tatsukawa, Yuichi, Tanimoto, Jun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9094739/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35578625
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112178
_version_ 1784705606373867520
author Utsumi, Shinobu
Arefin, Md. Rajib
Tatsukawa, Yuichi
Tanimoto, Jun
author_facet Utsumi, Shinobu
Arefin, Md. Rajib
Tatsukawa, Yuichi
Tanimoto, Jun
author_sort Utsumi, Shinobu
collection PubMed
description COVID-19 has shown that quarantine (or self-isolation) may be the only available tool against an unknown infectious disease if neither an effective vaccine nor anti-viral medication is available. Motivated by the fact that a considerable number of people were not compliant with the request for self-quarantine made by public authorities, this study used a multi-agent simulation model, whose results were validated by theory work, which highlights how and to what extent such an anti-social behavior hampers the confinement of a disease. Our framework quantifies two important scenarios: in one scenario a certain number of individuals totally ignore quarantine, whereas in the second scenario a larger number of individuals partially ignore the imposed policy. Our results reveal that the latter scenario can be more hazardous even if the total amount of social deficit of activity—measured by the total number of severed links in a physical network—would be same as the former scenario has, of which quantitative extent is dependent on the fraction of asymptomatic infected cases and the level of quarantine intensity the government imposing. Our findings have significance not only to epidemiology but also to research in the broader field of network science. PACS NUMBERS: Theory and modeling; computer simulation, 87.15.Aa; Dynamics of evolution, 87.23.Kg.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9094739
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Elsevier Ltd.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-90947392022-05-12 How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease? Utsumi, Shinobu Arefin, Md. Rajib Tatsukawa, Yuichi Tanimoto, Jun Chaos Solitons Fractals Article COVID-19 has shown that quarantine (or self-isolation) may be the only available tool against an unknown infectious disease if neither an effective vaccine nor anti-viral medication is available. Motivated by the fact that a considerable number of people were not compliant with the request for self-quarantine made by public authorities, this study used a multi-agent simulation model, whose results were validated by theory work, which highlights how and to what extent such an anti-social behavior hampers the confinement of a disease. Our framework quantifies two important scenarios: in one scenario a certain number of individuals totally ignore quarantine, whereas in the second scenario a larger number of individuals partially ignore the imposed policy. Our results reveal that the latter scenario can be more hazardous even if the total amount of social deficit of activity—measured by the total number of severed links in a physical network—would be same as the former scenario has, of which quantitative extent is dependent on the fraction of asymptomatic infected cases and the level of quarantine intensity the government imposing. Our findings have significance not only to epidemiology but also to research in the broader field of network science. PACS NUMBERS: Theory and modeling; computer simulation, 87.15.Aa; Dynamics of evolution, 87.23.Kg. Elsevier Ltd. 2022-06 2022-05-11 /pmc/articles/PMC9094739/ /pubmed/35578625 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112178 Text en © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Utsumi, Shinobu
Arefin, Md. Rajib
Tatsukawa, Yuichi
Tanimoto, Jun
How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?
title How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?
title_full How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?
title_fullStr How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?
title_full_unstemmed How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?
title_short How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?
title_sort how and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9094739/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35578625
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112178
work_keys_str_mv AT utsumishinobu howandtowhatextentdoestheantisocialbehaviorofviolatingselfquarantinemeasuresincreasethespreadofdisease
AT arefinmdrajib howandtowhatextentdoestheantisocialbehaviorofviolatingselfquarantinemeasuresincreasethespreadofdisease
AT tatsukawayuichi howandtowhatextentdoestheantisocialbehaviorofviolatingselfquarantinemeasuresincreasethespreadofdisease
AT tanimotojun howandtowhatextentdoestheantisocialbehaviorofviolatingselfquarantinemeasuresincreasethespreadofdisease