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Statistical significance and its critics: practicing damaging science, or damaging scientific practice?
While the common procedure of statistical significance testing and its accompanying concept of p-values have long been surrounded by controversy, renewed concern has been triggered by the replication crisis in science. Many blame statistical significance tests themselves, and some regard them as suf...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer Netherlands
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9096069/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35578622 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-022-03692-0 |
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author | Mayo, Deborah G. Hand, David |
author_facet | Mayo, Deborah G. Hand, David |
author_sort | Mayo, Deborah G. |
collection | PubMed |
description | While the common procedure of statistical significance testing and its accompanying concept of p-values have long been surrounded by controversy, renewed concern has been triggered by the replication crisis in science. Many blame statistical significance tests themselves, and some regard them as sufficiently damaging to scientific practice as to warrant being abandoned. We take a contrary position, arguing that the central criticisms arise from misunderstanding and misusing the statistical tools, and that in fact the purported remedies themselves risk damaging science. We argue that banning the use of p-value thresholds in interpreting data does not diminish but rather exacerbates data-dredging and biasing selection effects. If an account cannot specify outcomes that will not be allowed to count as evidence for a claim—if all thresholds are abandoned—then there is no test of that claim. The contributions of this paper are: To explain the rival statistical philosophies underlying the ongoing controversy; To elucidate and reinterpret statistical significance tests, and explain how this reinterpretation ameliorates common misuses and misinterpretations; To argue why recent recommendations to replace, abandon, or retire statistical significance undermine a central function of statistics in science: to test whether observed patterns in the data are genuine or due to background variability. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9096069 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Springer Netherlands |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-90960692022-05-12 Statistical significance and its critics: practicing damaging science, or damaging scientific practice? Mayo, Deborah G. Hand, David Synthese Original Research While the common procedure of statistical significance testing and its accompanying concept of p-values have long been surrounded by controversy, renewed concern has been triggered by the replication crisis in science. Many blame statistical significance tests themselves, and some regard them as sufficiently damaging to scientific practice as to warrant being abandoned. We take a contrary position, arguing that the central criticisms arise from misunderstanding and misusing the statistical tools, and that in fact the purported remedies themselves risk damaging science. We argue that banning the use of p-value thresholds in interpreting data does not diminish but rather exacerbates data-dredging and biasing selection effects. If an account cannot specify outcomes that will not be allowed to count as evidence for a claim—if all thresholds are abandoned—then there is no test of that claim. The contributions of this paper are: To explain the rival statistical philosophies underlying the ongoing controversy; To elucidate and reinterpret statistical significance tests, and explain how this reinterpretation ameliorates common misuses and misinterpretations; To argue why recent recommendations to replace, abandon, or retire statistical significance undermine a central function of statistics in science: to test whether observed patterns in the data are genuine or due to background variability. Springer Netherlands 2022-05-12 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC9096069/ /pubmed/35578622 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-022-03692-0 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Original Research Mayo, Deborah G. Hand, David Statistical significance and its critics: practicing damaging science, or damaging scientific practice? |
title | Statistical significance and its critics: practicing damaging science, or damaging scientific practice? |
title_full | Statistical significance and its critics: practicing damaging science, or damaging scientific practice? |
title_fullStr | Statistical significance and its critics: practicing damaging science, or damaging scientific practice? |
title_full_unstemmed | Statistical significance and its critics: practicing damaging science, or damaging scientific practice? |
title_short | Statistical significance and its critics: practicing damaging science, or damaging scientific practice? |
title_sort | statistical significance and its critics: practicing damaging science, or damaging scientific practice? |
topic | Original Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9096069/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35578622 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-022-03692-0 |
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